亚洲-股票策略-亚洲股市季度洞察：保持建设性

Disclosures & Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. Issuer of report: The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited View HSBC Global Research at: https://www.research.hsbc.com THIS CONTENT MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED TO MAINLAND CHINA  We remain constructive on Asian equities in 2020e, following a strong performance in 2019; we forecast c13% upside  Focus on pockets of growth: Chinese empty-nesters, e-gaming, automation, Korean DRAM, travel, Indian F&B and ASEAN companies exposed to fast-growing second-tier cities  We upgrade Pakistan to neutral; downgrade Thailand to neutral and both Korea and Malaysia to underweight We are moderately constructive on Asian equities in 2020. Current consensus is for low-teens EPS growth in 2020, valuations are broadly attractive and, with ROEs rising, PEs could rise too. Regionally, many investors are defensively positioned across Asia and global investors are underweight the region. After 14.8% growth in 2019, we forecast c13% upside in 2020e, with most of it coming from mainland China and ASEAN. Mainland China. Our overweight position is driven by: 1) strong earnings growth expectations of 11.9%; 2) earnings upgrade cycle that just started; 3) continued financial and monetary easing; and 4) reforms to improve investor access to mainland China equities. Korea. We downgrade to underweight (from neutral) after the recent market performance. This is despite a positive view on DRAM stocks, which account for c40% of FTSE Korea market cap. Key here is that investors are now at their five-year high overweight positions on this market. Elsewhere, growth is much weaker. Earnings in Korea banks, for example, are set to contract in 2020e. Hong Kong. We remain neutral. The operating environment remains tough. But not all are equal – retailers need to renegotiate rents but residential property is supported by rate cuts, airlines are facing a market share reshuffling, while utilities are seeing little impact. We see the HSI at 31,070 by end-2020e. (See The Flying Dutchman - Hong Kong: How corporates navigate choppy waters, 12-Dec-19.) Pockets of growth. Across Asia, there are pockets of growth that stand out. For example, the rise of the empty-nesters, who now account for 53% of urban consumption in mainland China, is driving growth in travel, home refurbishing and footwear. Elsewhere, new sectors are emerging (e-sports in mainland China), others are adjusting to supply shocks (DRAM in Korea), and in ASEAN, companies are increasing their exposure to faster-growing second-tier cities. Lastly, some Indian companies can perform in a difficult environment (modern retail and F&B in India). Other country weightings. In this report, we also upgrade Pakistan to neutral, downgrade Thailand to neutral, and downgrade Malaysia to underweight. Our key equity investment ideas are located in the pocke