IMF-剖析亚洲中期增长前景（英）

Dissecting Medium-Term Growth Prospects for Asia Natasha Che, Federico J. Diez, Anne Oeking, Weining Xin WP/25/168IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. 2025 AUG © 2025 International Monetary Fund WP/25/168 IMF Working Paper Asia and Pacific Department Dissecting Medium-Term Growth Prospects for Asia Natasha Che, Federico J. Diez, Anne Oeking, Weining Xin Authorized for distribution by Paulo A. Medas August 2025 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT: This paper explores Asia-Pacific's medium-term growth prospects using two approaches. First, growth accounting analysis and machine-learning estimation reveal how demographics, capital deepening, productivity, and human capital shaped Asia's growth. Second, an innovative algorithm forecasts growth by matching countries' current conditions with historically analogous periods using Dynamic Time Warping (DTW). Comparing pattern-based forecasts with traditional projections highlights economic convergence and demographic headwinds. Results show that without ambitious reforms, Asia's growth will likely moderate, though remaining the world's fastest growing region. The paper offers data-driven tools for policymakers to identify growth drivers and generate robust forecasts. RECOMMENDED CITATION: Che, Natasha, Federico J. Diez, Anne Oeking, and Weining Xin (2025). "Dissecting Medium-Term Growth Prospects for Asia." IMF Working Paper, International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC. JEL Classification Numbers: E17, O11, O40, O47, O53 Keywords: Asia-Pacific; growth forecasting; demographics; productivity; Dynamic Time Warping; machine learning; growth accounting; economic convergence Author’s E-Mail Address: NChe@imf.org, FDiez@imf.org, AOeking@imf.org, WXin@imf.org IMF WORKING PAPERS Dissecting Medium-Term Growth Prospects for Asia INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 3 WORKING PAPERS Dissecting Medium-Term Growth Prospects for Asia Prepared by Natasha Che, Federico J. Diez, Anne Oeking, Weining Xin1 1 The authors would like to thank Davide Furceri and Paulo Medas for their guidance and support, and colleagues at APD’s A1 and Regional Studies Divisions for their helpful comments and suggestions. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. All remaining errors are our own. Dissecting Medium-Term Growth Prospects for AsiaNatasha Che, Federico J. D´ıez, Anne Oeking, Weining XinAugust 3, 2025AbstractThis paper ex