纽约联储-供应冲击如何普遍化通胀？欧洲疫情时代的证据（英）

How Do Supply Shocks to Inflation Generalize? Evidence From the Pandemic Era in Europe Viral V. Acharya | Matteo Crosignani | Tim Eisert Christian Eufinger NO. 1164 AUGUST 2025 How Do Supply Shocks to Inflation Generalize? Evidence From the Pandemic Era in Europe Viral V. Acharya, Matteo Crosignani, Tim Eisert, and Christian Eufinger Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, no. 1164 August 2025 https://doi.org/10.59576/sr.1164 Abstract We document how the interaction of supply chain pressures, elevated household inflation expectations, and firm pricing power contributed to the pandemic-era surge in consumer price inflation in the euro area. Initially, supply chain disruptions raised inflation, particularly in manufacturing, through a cost-push channel, while also elevating inflation expectations. In turn, higher inflation expectations appear to have lowered the price elasticity of consumer demand and strengthened firms’ pricing power, enabling even firms in service sectors that were initially unaffected by supply constraints to raise markups. Through this expectations mechanism, localized inflation in sectors sensitive to supply-side shocks generalized into broad-based inflation. JEL classification: E31, E58, D84, L11 Key words: inflation expectations, euro area, firm markups, market power, supply chain _________________ Crosignani: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, CEPR (email: matteo.crosignani@ny.frb.org). Acharya: NYU Stern, CEPR, ECGI, NBER (email: vva1@stern.nyu.edu). Eisert: Nova School of Business and Economics, CEPR (email: tim.eisert@novasbe.pt). Eufinger: IESE (email: ceufinger@iese.edu). The authors thank Filippo De Marco, Marco del Negro, Michael Weber, Gil Nogueira, Yang Liu, and Lars Norden, as well as seminar and conference participants at Yale, Western Finance Association Annual conference, Catolica Lisbon, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the Bank of Italy, the European Central Bank, Norges Bank, NHH Bergen, the Danish Central Bank, University of Padova, IESE, CEPR Luiss Finance Workshop, Banco de Portugal, CEPR Conference on Financial Intermediation, the “Heterogenous Households, Firms and Financial Intermediaries: Theoretical Insights and Validation with Microdata” conference (Norges Bank), and the CEPR Paris Symposium for valuable comments. They thank Lily Gordon and Jasper Yang for excellent research assistance. This paper presents preliminary findings and is being distributed to economists and other interested readers solely to stimulate discussion and elicit comments. The views expressed in this paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System. Any errors or omissions are the responsibility of the author(s). To view the authors’ disclosure statements, visit https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/sr1164.html. 1Introduction“Elasticity is a relative thing. Elastic