IMF-弥合差距：了解英美生产率脱钩（英）

Bridging the Gap: Understanding the UK-US Productivity Decoupling Leonardo Indraccolo SIP/2025/112IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodic consultations with member countries. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed on July 1, 2025. This paper is also published separately as IMF Country Report No 25/205. 2025 AUG ©2025 International Monetary Fund SIP/2025/112 IMF Selected Issues Paper European Department Bridging the Gap: Understanding the UK-US Productivity Decoupling Prepared by Leonardo Indraccolo Authorized for distribution by Luc Eyraud August 2025 IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodic consultations with member countries. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed on July 1, 2025. This paper is also published separately as IMF Country Report No 25/205. ABSTRACT: The UK’s productivity gap with the US has widened over the past two decades, with productivity growth rates decoupling after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). This paper complements existing studies by using sectoral and firm-level data to discuss different microeconomic drivers of the diverging trends. While the loss of pre-GFC growth engines, in particular the leverage-driven boom in the financial sector, accounts for a large part of the productivity slowdown relative to the US, it is only part of the explanation. Outside the financial sector, the UK’s publicly listed companies, especially frontier firms, have lagged behind the US due to a significant decline in post-GFC total factor productivity (TFP) growth, resulting in widening efficiency gaps within firms. We discuss how reduced investment in intangible capital following the GFC, along with lower R&D spending compared to the US, may contribute to subdued TFP growth among UK firms. To revive productivity, this analysis suggests a two-pronged approach aimed at: 1) building on the UK’s strengths and revitalizing traditional growth engines, especially the financial and ICT sectors; and 2) fostering a more conducive environment to business innovation through greater access to scale-up finance and continued efforts to retain high skilled individuals. RECOMMENDED CITATION: Indraccolo, Leonardo “Bridging the Gap: Understanding the UK-US Productivity Decoupling.” IMF Selected Issues Paper 25/112 JEL Classification Numbers: O47,O33, L25 Keywords: Productivity; United Kingdom; Growth Author’s E-Mail Address: lindraccolo@imf.org SELECTED ISSUES PAPERS Bridging the Gap: Understanding the UK-US Productivity Decoupling United Kingdom Prepared by Leonardo Indraccolo1 1 The author would like to thank Luc Eyraud, Andrew Hodge, Kristina Kostial and Pragyan Deb for helpful comments. The paper also benefitted from excellent suggestions and insights from Prof. John Van Reenen and Sophie Piton, as well as seminar participants at the HM Treasury and colleagues from the Bank of England