世界银行-中东和北非干旱对劳动力市场的影响（英）

Policy Research Working Paper11191The Labor Market Effects of Droughts in MENANelly ElmallakhDiego FaurèsRoberta GattiAsif M. Islam Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan RegionOffice of the Chief EconomistAugust 2025 Public Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedProduced by the Research Support TeamAbstractThe Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.Policy Research Working Paper 11191This paper examines the impact of negative precipitation shocks (droughts) on labor markets in the Middle East and North Africa region. Using Labor Force Survey data across five countries over approximately 25 years and matched with fifth generation of atmospheric reanalysis produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts hourly climate data, the study finds that droughts affect labor market outcomes at both the extensive and intensive margins. A negative precipitation shock is associated with a 1 percentage point increase in unemployment and a 4.4 percent reduction in weekly hours worked for both men and women. The results are driven by urban areas, high-lighting that the labor market effects of extreme weather events may extend beyond their impact on the agriculture sector and rural areas. However, extreme weather events do negatively affect a subset of the rural population—young women—by increasing unemployment. The findings pro-vide crucial empirical evidence on the socioeconomic costs of climate variability, underscoring the need for targeted policies that address these impacts in urban settings.This paper is a product of the Office of the Chief Economist, Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan Region. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/prwp. The authors may be contacted at nelmallakh@worldbank.org, dfaures@worldbank.org, rgatti@worldbank.org, and aislam@worldbank.org.The Labor Market Effects of Droughts in MENA Nelly Elmallakh, Diego Faurès, Roberta Gatti, and Asif M. Islam1 Keywords: Climate change, droughts, employment, labor markets, Middle East and North Africa. JEL codes: J21, J43, Q54. 1 The findings, i