投行报告-稳定币夏季（英）

ISSUE 141 | August 19, 2025 | 8:40 AM EDTInvestors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html.The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.It’s been the summer of stablecoins. The recently-passed GENIUS Act has created the first federal regulatory system for stablecoins, major companies are exploring launching their own stablecoins, and USDC issuer Circle recently went public to much fanfare. So, does the stablecoin summer have staying power? Former Acting Comptroller of the Currency Brian Brooks believes so, arguing that the sense of safety around stablecoins the GENIUS Act provides will unleash a stablecoin “gold rush”. We then explore what stablecoin proliferation could mean for stablecoin issuers (the commercial opportunity should grow as asset tokenization expands), traditional payment rails (the risks are generally overstated), Treasuries (it depends), and bank deposits (likely limited impact for now). And we dig into the potential implications for financial stability, with UC Berkeley’s Barry Eichengreen quite concerned that stablecoin proliferation could look like the problematic Free Banking Era, but Brooks adamantly disagreeing with this comparison. “ INTERVIEWS WITH: Brian Brooks, Former Acting Comptroller of the Currency; Chairman and CEO, Meridian Capital Group; Board member, Strategy Barry Eichengreen, Professor of Economics and Political Science, University of California, Berkeley STABLECOINS: IMPLICATIONS FOR US TREASURIES William Marshall and Bill Zu, GS Rates Research STABLECOINS: THE COMMERCIAL OPPORTUNITY James Yaro, GS Equity Research Q&A: STABLECOINS’ IMPACTS ON PAYMENTS Will Nance, GS Equity Research COULD STABLECOINS REDUCE BANK DEPOSITS? Richard Ramsden, GS Equity Research STABLECOIN VS. CBDC Bill Zu, GS Rates Research WHAT’S INSIDE The GENIUS Act establishes a supervisory system… [that] will create a sense of safety in stablecoins, which will drive mass market adoption. - Brian BrooksThe US has experimented with private monies—which is essentially what stablecoins are—in the past, often with disastrous consequences for financial stability. I’m concerned that stablecoins could follow a similar path. - Barry Eichengreen “Allison Nathan | allison.nathan@gs.com Jenny Grimberg | jenny.grimberg@gs.com Ashley Rhodes | ashley.rhodes@gs.com STABLECOIN SUMMER...AND MORENote: The following is a redacted version of the original report published August 19, 2025 [24 pgs]. hEl Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 2 Top of Mind Issue 141 Macro news and views US Japan Latest GS proprietary datapoints/major changes in views • No major changes in views. Datapoints/trends we’re focused on • Core PCE inflation, which we expect to rise to 3.3% yoy by Dec amid higher tariffs, though we expect it to fall next year as tariffs likely provide only a one-time p