IMF-衡量撒哈拉以南非洲新兴市场和前沿市场的货币政策立场（英）

2025 AUG Measuring Monetary Policy Stance in Sub-Saharan African Emerging and Frontier Markets Johanna Tiedemann, Olivier Bizimana, and Shant Arzoumanian WP/25/160 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. * The authors thank Geneviève Verdier for her guidance and support, Mika Saito, participants at the IMF AFR seminar series, IMFDepartmental reviewers and other IMF colleagues, and staff at the BEAC Research Department for helpful comments andsuggestions. We are grateful to Thomas Lubik for his valuable insights on the estimation of the TVP-VAR model using priors from the U.S. model. Kiswendsida Tougouma provided outstanding research assistance. © 2025 International Monetary Fund WP/25/160IMF Working Paper African Department Measuring Monetary Policy Stance in Sub-Saharan African Emerging and Frontier Markets Prepared by Johanna Tiedemann, Olivier Bizimana, and Shant Arzoumanian * Authorized for distribution by Geneviève Verdier July 2025 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT: This paper assesses the stance of monetary policy in eleven Sub-Saharan African (SSA) emerging and frontier market economies. We estimate neutral real interest rates using a range of methodologies, and find a broadly declining trend in most economies since the Global Financial Crisis, consistent with patterns observed in advanced and major emerging market economies. We document significant heterogeneity in monetary policy stances—measured by the interest rate gap—even during common global shocks. We also examine the consistency between signals from the intended monetary policy stance and broader financial conditions. To this end, we construct financial conditions indices (FCIs) and analyze their relationship with interest rate gaps. We find that this relationship strengthens during periods of highly accommodative or restrictive monetary stances, particularly in economies that have adopted or are transitioning to inflation-targeting frameworks. Moreover, contractionary monetary shocks tighten financial conditions more in these economies than in those operating under other regimes. RECOMMENDED CITATION: Johanna Tiedemann, Olivier Bizimana, and Shant Arzoumanian. 2025. “Measuring Monetary Policy Stance in Sub-Saharan African Emerging and Frontier Markets”, IMF Working Paper No. WP 25/160. JEL Classification Numbers: E40; E43; E44; E52; E53; E61 Keywords: Neutral Interest Rate, Monetary Policy Stance, Financial Conditions, Monetary Policy Transmission, SSA Author’s E-Mai