IMF-住房繁荣与生产率增长（英）

Housing Booms and Productivity Growth Yuanchen Yang, Flora Lutz, Lucy Liu WP/25/161 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the authors and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. 2025 AUG * The authors would like to thank Alessia De Stefani, Romain Bouis, Jerome Vandenbussche, and IMF Canada team for theirconstructive feedback. We also gratefully acknowledge the valuable comments provided by participants from Finance Canadaand the Bank of Canada during the seminar held as part of the IMF’s 2023 Article IV mission to Canada. All remaining errors are our own. © 2025 International Monetary Fund WP/25/161IMF Working Paper Western Hemisphere Department Housing Booms and Productivity Growth Prepared by Yuanchen Yang, Flora Lutz, and Lucy Liu Authorized for distribution by Ashvin Ahuja August 2025 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT: This paper investigates the nexus between persistent house price increases and productivity growth in Canada, focusing on the collateral channel. We first present a stylized model explaining the mechanism of the colleteral channel. Using detailed firm-level data spanning from 2000 to 2023, the empirical analysis finds a negative correlation between firm productivity and its real estate holdings. Furthermore, rising house prices dampen investment for firms with fewer tangible assets but stimulate investment for those with more. At the industry level, while overall productivity may increase with rising house prices on average, industries with significant tangible asset holdings exhibit an opposite trend, suggesting potential resource misallocation associated with persistent housing market boom. RECOMMENDED CITATION: Yang, Y., Lutz, F., Liu, Q., 2025. Housing Booms and Productivity Growth in Canada, IMF Working Paper No. 2025/161. JEL Classification Numbers: E2, G3, R3 Keywords: housing boom; real estate, productivity; misallocation Author’s E-Mail Address: Yyang6@imf.org; Flutz@imf.org; QLiu3@imf.org IMF WORKING PAPERS Housing Booms and Productivity Growth INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 3 WORKING PAPERS Housing Booms and Productivity Growth Prepared by Yuanchen Yang, Flora Lutz, and Lucy Liu IMF WORKING PAPERS Housing Booms and Productivity Growth INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 4 Contents Introduction ......................................................................................................................................................... 5Figure 1: House price and productivity growth in Canada and selected advanced economies .............. 5Figure 2: House price