2025面向体系优势的指挥控制蓝皮书-态势认知篇

Achieving System of Systems Advantage in Command and Control Volume: The Situational Awareness 信 息 系 统 工 程 全 国 重 点 实 验 室 National Key Laboratory of Information Systems Engineering 2025 年 8 月 面向体系优势的指挥控制蓝皮书 i 前 言 在全球地缘政治格局深度调整和军事科技迅猛发展的时代背景下，未来高端战争形态正在向全域联合的体系化、无人化、智能化方向演变，这从根本上重塑了现代军事对抗的规则和逻辑。全域联合的作战体系，横跨陆海空天网电等多个作战空间，深度融合了情报侦察、指挥控制、火力打击等多种作战要素，使其相互关联、共同构成一个有机整体。体系优势将成为未来战争制胜的关键法宝。 态势认知的形态始终伴随着战争形态的演进而演化，而面向体系优势的态势认知，正是适应现代战争趋势的产物。它打破了传统物理域、信息域、认知域的边界，以体系视角对全域信息进行深度融合。这种新的认知模式核心在于，通过对自身与对手的体系构成、运行规律和能力边界进行动态感知、深入理解和趋势预测，进而识别、把握并主动塑造对己方有利的体系优势。这种能力确保了在复杂动态环境中，能够快速、准确地掌握态势本质，最终为夺取并形成体系优势提供坚实的认知基础。 本报告（态势认知篇）是面向体系优势的指挥控制系列蓝皮书的第二个分册，是在第一个分册（体系篇）的基础上，进一步围绕面向体系优势的态势认知，阐述相关概念、内涵机理、科学问题、研究建议等内容。报告由五部面向体系优势的指挥控制蓝皮书 ii 分组成。第一部分阐述态势认知相关的概念定义、新战争迷雾的不确定态势认知观、战争形态牵引的态势认知演变过程等。第二部分概述体系作战态势认知的挑战与技术发展。第三部分提出了面向体系优势的态势认知构想，剖析其主要特点，从“基本形态、空间形态、时间形态、心智形态”四个方面给出了面向体系优势的态势认知内容。第四部分提出面向体系优势的态势认知“定、融、推、评”方法论。第五部分分类介绍面向体系优势的态势认知的科学问题和研究建议。 本报告由张维明、王珩牵头策划组织，由丁峰、毛少杰、熊朝华、肖卫东指导，编写人员包括刘小毅、葛唯益、阮国庆、李婷婷、刁联旺、饶佳人、朱飞宇、谢科、闫晶晶、周光霞、周鋆、罗来龙、周锐、张如飞、李楠楠、李东锦等。 面向体系优势的指挥控制蓝皮书 iii Preface As the global geopolitical landscape undergoes profound shifts and military technology develops rapidly, the future of high-end warfare is evolving toward an integrated, unmanned, and intelligent joint all-domain operational system of systems (SoS). This fundamentally reshapes the rules and logic of modern warfare. This all-domain SoS spans land, sea, air, space, cyber, and the electromagnetic spectrum, deeply integrating combat elements like intelligence, command and control, and firepower into a single, cohesive whole. Ultimately, a system of systems advantage (SoS advantage) will be the key to winning future warfare. Situational awareness has always evolved in parallel with the nature of warfare. This has led to a new approach: situational awareness for system of systems advantage. Instead of being confined to traditional domains, it fuses all-domain information by analyzing it from a SoS perspective. This new model's core purpose is to gain a deep understanding of both friendly and adversary SoS by perceiving, understanding, and predicting their composition, operational rules, and capabilities. This deep insight allows us to identify, grasp, and proactively shape a decisive SoS advantage. Ultimately, this capability ensures we can quickly and accurately comprehend the essence 面向体系优势的指挥控制蓝皮书 iv of any complex situation, providing the cognitive foundation needed to seize and maintain that advantage. This report, Volume: The Situational Awareness, is the second in a series on Achieving System of Systems Advantage in Command and Control. Building on the first volume, Volume: The System of Systems, this report details the concepts, mechanisms, scientific problems, and research recommendations related to situational awareness for SoS advantage. The report is structured into five parts. It begins by covering key concepts, the uncertainty of the "new fog of war," and the evolution of situational awareness. I