ITIF-全球化2.0时代？（英）

36 THE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY WINTER 2025Time for Globalization 2.0?From the fall of the Soviet Union to the 2016 election of President Donald Trump, America rode the globalization horse, leading the charge for the near-complete global integration of finance, investment, and trade. In this utopia, economic borders would be a thing of the past, capital would find its most efficient use anywhere around the world, and the globe would be awash with win-win outcomes. Sure, some workers might get hurt, but they could move frictionlessly to thriving communities and “learn to code.” It was America’s destined role to lead the world to this brighter place. Those who didn’t embrace that view were, well, beyond the pale and accused of being ignorant of basic economic principles.It is easy to look back with incredulity and for some, even disdain, but this would forget the heady days after the long Cold War, and the belief in, as former U.S. State Department official Francis Fukuyama called it, “the end of history.” Or as former Intel CEO Craig Barrett stated, “Capitalism has won and economy trumps all going forward.” With the exception of a few malcontents, who didn’t agree? Indeed, it was, and for many still is, a simple, seductive, and sublime conception.Needless to say, that vision didn’t work out quite the way its advocates believed or promised. The rise of an array of “behind the border” trade re-strictions, many unchallengeable in the World Trade Organization system, was unexpected for many, as was the recalcitrance of many leading nations, especially in the “global South” and led by India, toward getting fully on board. But most important was the rise of China, a country that willfully This time without the mistakes?B y Rob e rt D. At kin sonRobert D. Atkinson is President of the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation.THE MAGAZINE OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY220 I Street, N.E., Suite 200Washington, D.C. 20002www.international-economy.comeditor@international-economy.comWINTER 2025 THE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY 37 At k i n s o nskirted global trade rules in the 2000s and abandoned and flouted them by the 2010s. And so, the political economy of trade in the United States, but also in many OECD nations, shifted from one of utopian optimism to almost dystopian despair. Domestically we have gone from America the leader to America alone. It didn’t matter which party was in power. The first Trump administration opposed market opening, signaled by its day-one abandonment of the Transpacific Partnership trade agreement. But so did the Biden administration, with its “pause” on new trade agreements (a euphemism for ban), its pulling the United States out of the WTO Joint Statement Initiative on e-commerce, and its embrace of Buy America and other protectionist measures. Now the second Trump administration promises to go all in on autarky, with across-the-board tariffs on friends and foes alike.At one level, it could be expected that the