2025H1点评：锂盐盈利性拐点已现，铜矿及小金属迸发高成长

1 指标2023A2024A2025E2026E2027E营业收入（百万元）6,0135,3646,5478,38111,254增速（%）-25.2%-10.8%22.1%28.0%34.3%归母净利润（百万元）2,2087574869401,583增速（%）-33.0%-65.7%-35.8%93.4%68.4%每股收益（元）4.573.061.050.671.30市盈率（倍）13.338.860.431.218.5Wind Wind Wind Wind 2025 12.823.980.460.153.632.79.5%87.7%232.5%-25.2%-10.8%34.9%-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%0102030405060708090202020212022202320242025H1营业收入（亿元）YOY1.75.633.022.17.60.924.4%220.3%485.9%-33.0%-65.7%-81.2%-200%-100%0%100%200%300%400%500%600%05101520253035202020212022202320242025H1归母净利润（亿元）YOY42.1%48.5%53.0%54.8%32.8%18.0%13.4%23.2%41.0%36.6%14.1%2.6%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%202020212022202320242025H1销售毛利率销售净利率5000060000700008000090000100000110000120000中国:价格:碳酸锂(99.5%电,国产)Wind iFinD 2025Q22025Q12024Q42024Q32024Q22024Q12023Q42023Q3营业收入(百万元)1730.31536.41794.51147.61295.11126.61007.81403.7营业成本(百万元)1486.01194.11303.5889.8716.1697.8797.7564.5销售费用率0.4%0.6%0.7%1.1%0.5%0.7%0.5%1.3%管理费用率6.0%6.2%4.4%10.0%7.6%6.1%9.4%5.0%财务费用率0.6%1.3%-1.8%7.7%1.9%12.1%2.1%3.6%研发费用率1.1%1.6%0.7%4.3%2.9%1.2%2.1%3.6%资产减值损失(百万元)-44.6 5.8-30.5 0.0-0.2 0.0-0.5 0.0利润总额(百万元)36.1200.2321.975.2341.0222.153.3626.5所得税费用(百万元)86.566.0111.64.7119.4-29.3 -78.8 59.5净利润（百万元）-50.3 134.2210.370.5221.6251.4132.1567.0EPS（元）-0.06 0.190.290.100.300.350.190.80毛利率14.1%22.3%27.4%22.5%44.7%38.1%20.8%59.8%期间费用率8.1%9.6%4.0%23.1%12.9%20.0%14.1%13.6%所得税率239.3%33.0%34.7%6.3%35.0%-13.2%-148.0%9.5%净利润率-2.9%8.7%11.7%6.1%17.1%22.3%13.1%40.4%资产负债表利润表会计年度2022202320242025E2026E2027E会计年度2022202320242025E2026E2027E货币资金2911.694915.304084.372508.242962.983385.10营业收入8041.226013.325363.856547.368381.0911254.16应收票据及账款1159.38477.31834.00896.901148.091541.67营业成本3782.692717.503607.155049.846255.777962.87预付账款185.50168.38116.02143.50206.66308.33税金及附加57.98137.67182.68229.16293.34393.90其他应收款75.43156.2887.51125.57160.73215.83销售费用49.3273.0139.4952.3867.0590.03存货1580.831444.862142.243043.743770.604799.54管理费用267.99384.05361.30432.13553.15742.77其他流动资产319.57900.75872.781044.581281.131651.74研发费用237.01172.11113.3598.21167.62225.08流动资产总计6232.398062.888136.927762.539530.2011902.21财务费用-28.78 166.12215.9535.68-0.10 -7.24 长期股权投资11.5139.2324.5514.556.551.55资产减值损失-2.92 -0.47 -30.74 -196.42 -41.91 -56.27 固定资产960.732207.823157.883142.303439.023463.70信用减值损失14.34-41.29 19.8824.2631.0641.71在建工程387.39796.61588.641090.53892.43794.32其他经营损益0.000.00-0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 无形资产1835.601852.632430.571994.431558.291122.16投资收益78.1115.8843.5550.0055.0062.00长期待摊费用109.70639.19618.19309.090.000.00公允价值变动损益0.000.943.623.503.503.50其他非流动资产1945.132286.472236.102233.972227.672221.37资产处置收益35.12-6.10 -0.08 0.000.000.00非流动资产合计5250.067821.969055.928784.878123.967603.10其他收益10.4294.9661.2965.0075.0085.00资产总计11482.4515884.8317192.8416547.4017654.1519505.31营业利润3810.082426.77941.45596.301166.921982.68短期借款495.32913.671485.880.000.000.00营业外收入4.941.3933.4035.0040.0040.00应付票据及账款271.91252.93553.97788.61976.931243.52营业外支出2.507.9614.6015.0015.0015.00其他流动负债1545.171126.061277.691723.222146.132752.11其他非经营损益0.000.000.000.000.000.00流动负债合计2312.402292.673317.542511