评估中国AI芯片的供需情况（中英）

17 July 2025China SemiconductorsChina AI: Sizing the AI chip supply and demand in ChinaQingyuan Lin, Ph.D.+852 2123 2654qingyuan.lin@bernsteinsg.comStacy A. Rasgon, Ph.D.+1 213 559 5917stacy.rasgon@bernsteinsg.comRobin Zhu+852 2123 2659robin.zhu@bernsteinsg.comBoris Van+852 2123 2617boris.van@bernsteinsg.comZheng Cui+852 2123 2694zheng.cui@bernsteinsg.comFrancis Ma+852 2123 2626francis.ma@bernsteinsg.comAlrick Shaw+1 917 344 8454alrick.shaw@bernsteinsg.comArpad von Nemes+1 917 344 8461arpad.vonnemes@bernsteinsg.comA key controversy for the China AI chip sector is how U.S. export controls will affect thedynamics of AI chip supply and demand, especially given the recent change in Nvidia H20export controls with potential sales resumption. In this call, our objective is to quantify thesupply and demand dynamics of AI chips in China and evaluate their broader implications.Overall, we believe demand for AI chips in China remains strong, while both global anddomestic vendors are likely to face supply constraints throughout 2025. That said, therecent resumption of Nvidia’s chip sales to China could provide a positive boost for localCSP, helping to partially alleviate the current supply shortage.Demand for AI chips is strong, supply is likely still constrained in CY25 even afterthe H20 sales resumption (Exhibit 2). Prior to the initial ban on H20 chips in China, weprojected that China’s AI chip demand in CY25 would reach $39.5 bn, with 37% fromdomestic vendors. We estimated the ban would reduce H20 sales in CY25 by ~$16.8 bn.However, given that Nvidia would have only about 4 months to resume production and sales(accounting for necessary lead times), we assume roughly $10.5 bn of this lost volumecould be recaptured in CY25. Additionally, the new B30 chip is expected to contribute anextra $2.8 bn, with shipments set to begin in September. We also anticipate AMD couldsecure around $1 bn in sales, while domestic vendors are likely to retain the $1.5 bn inincremental sales generated by the H20 ban. Combined, these factors would bring totalAI chip supply in China to an estimated $37 bn in CY25—still resulting in a $2.5 bn supplyshortage, though significantly smaller than the initial $12.6 bn gap we projected (Exhibit 1).If Nvidia can further accelerate production resumption, there could be an additional $3 bnupside to its China sales in CY25.The H20 sales resumption would benefit local CSPs and broader internet players.Our channel checks reveal that Bytedance, Alibaba, Tencent, Baidu rank as the toppurchasers of H20 chips in China (Exhibit 4), accounting for 80%+ of its total demand in2024. We expect them to continue to be large buyers once H20 resumes and expect otherCSPs and internet companies (e.g., Kuaishou) will also gain access and reduce constraintissues around their AI initiatives. Additionally, our checks indicate that despite the B30 chip(before H20 sales resumption) featuring lower specs, ~50% lower ASP lead to similar ROIvs H20, as a result large in