世界银行-气候脆弱性和就业机会：来自马达加斯加塔那那利佛的证据（英）

Policy Research Working Paper11180Climate Vulnerability and Job AccessibilityEvidence from Antananarivo, Madagascar Atsushi IimiTransport Global DepartmentAugust 2025 Public Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedProduced by the Research Support TeamAbstractThe Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.Policy Research Working Paper 11180Many developing cities are facing rapid population growth and extreme climate events. This paper examines the link between job accessibility and climate vulnerability, using data from Antananarivo, Madagascar, which frequently experiences flooding. As in other countries, the analysis finds that men’s commutes are longer than women’s, who tend to walk to work or use public transport. Even after controlling for observables and the potential endogeneity bias associated with commute time, the findings show that climate vulnerability negatively impacts wages, as people avoid commuting long to work due to anticipated poten-tial climate risks. Building climate resilience into urban transport is therefore essential. As predicted by theory, the evidence also shows that the value of commuting is positive, and walking is disadvantageous. Motorized commuting yields higher returns, which could lead to overuse of private cars and taxis, posing decarbonization challenges.This paper is a product of the Transport Global Department. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/prwp. The author may be contacted at aiimi@worldbank.org. Climate Vulnerability and Job Accessibility: Evidence from Antananarivo, Madagascar Atsushi Iimi¶ Eastern and Southern Africa Transport Global Practice World Bank Keywords: Access to jobs; Job search model; Commuting; Informal transport; Climate vulnerability; Instrumental variable estimation. JEL classification: C21, C26, O18, R41 ¶ Corresponding author. - 2 - I. INTRODUCTION 1. Urban transportation is essential for connecting residences, workplaces, and socioeconomic services. A substantial body of literature examines how weather conditions, such as temperature (e.g., Miao et al., 2019), rainfall (e