国际清算银行-关税和政策不确定性的宏观经济影响（英）

BIS Bulletin No 110 Macroeconomic impact of tariffs and policy uncertainty Emanuel Kohlscheen, Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, Dora Xia and Fabrizio Zampolli 12 August 2025 BIS Bulletins are written by staff members of the Bank for International Settlements, and from time to time by other economists, and are published by the Bank. The papers are on subjects of topical interest and are technical in character. The views expressed in them are those of their authors and not necessarily the views of the BIS. The authors are grateful to Julian Caballero, Pablo Hernandez de Cos, Daniel Rees, Hyun Song Shin, Frank Smets and Christian Upper for helpful comments, Hongyan Zhao for sharing trade model estimates, Adam Cap and Yui Ching Li for excellent analysis and research assistance, and to Nicola Faessler for administrative support. The editor of the BIS Bulletin series is Hyun Song Shin. This publication is available on the BIS website (www.bis.org). © Bank for International Settlements 2025. All rights reserved. Brief excerpts may be reproduced or translated provided the source is stated. ISSN: 2708-0420 (online) ISBN: 978-92-9259-880-8 (online) BIS Bulletin 1 Emanuel Kohlscheen Emanuel.Kohlscheen@bis.org Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul@bis.org Dora Xia Dora.Xia@bis.org Fabrizio Zampolli Fabrizio.Zampolli@bis.org Macroeconomic impact of tariffs and policy uncertainty Key takeaways • Tariffs affect economies most directly through trade volume and prices. Tariffs lower output growth everywhere, though the magnitude varies by country and scenario. They also tend to raise inflation, most notably in the imposing countries. • Tariffs have indirect effects, including exchange rate shifts, supply chain disruptions, trade diversion and heightened uncertainty. These could worsen growth and inflation effects as well as the policy trade-offs central banks face. • If it proves persistent, trade policy uncertainty could depress domestic demand and put global growth at risk. The global economy has until recently shown remarkable resilience in the face of tariff hikes and policy uncertainty. Global economic activity held up through the first half of the year, supported by a front-loading of trade, a more gradual increase in effective tariff rates than anticipated in April and easy financial conditions. This unexpected strength has led some forecasters to upgrade their growth outlooks from earlier pessimistic projections (eg see the IMF’s July projection (IMF (2025)). However, higher tariffs could eventually weigh on global growth. Even though some countries have reached bilateral trade deals, average US tariffs are likely to settle at levels unprecedented in the modern era. Indeed, US tariff revenues had already quadrupled by July 2025 (Graph 1.A). The increased trade costs are starting to affect corporate earnings in some manufacturing sectors. Recent US economic data – such as weaker private spending, persis