硅谷银行-2025年下半年市场状况（英）

H2 20253Introduction and Key Takeaways5Perspectives on the Innovation Economy7Macro Factors12Capital: Fundraising and Investment19VC-Backed Tech Benchmarks24AI: Breakthrough or Bubble?29Exits STATE OF THE MARKETS H2 20252As we saw with the dot-com era, early adopters of platform shifts are often not the market winners. Today’s valuations are starting to stretch rationality. It is likely many companies won’t achieve high returns, but the best companies could get so big they make up for the failures.”STATE OF THE MARKETS H2 20253Marc CadieuxPresident SVB Commercial Bankmcadieux@svb.com Mark GallagherHead of Investor CoverageSVB Commercial Bankmgallagher@svb.com It’s not your dad’s venture ecosystem. Venture has evolved since we started our careers. It has gone from a mere cottage industry to a pillar of private markets and technological innovation. In the ’80s and ’90s, a handful of venture funds — small by today’s standards — located in Boston and on Sand Hill Road were the epicenter of venture. Today VC funds operate from coast to coast and draw on global pools of capital. Funds themselves are more sophisticated, utilize new structures to tap different pools of LP capital, and often blur the lines between venture, private equity (PE) and even private debt. And the level of sophistication will only increase as megafund platforms dominate the top end of the VC industry. Amidst this backdrop of long-term evolution there is no shortage of fast-paced changes. Tariffs continue to loom over tech companies selling physical goods and threaten future inflationary headwinds. Beyond tariffs, changes in Washington are impacting everything from immigration and talent to secondary markets and LP tax regimes. The quickness of these changes are adding a layer of uncertainty and volatility as founders navigate the continued recalibration of the innovation economy. So how is the innovation economy faring today? Some things have remained constant since the start of the year. Companies are graduating from one series to the next at the lowest rates in history, and when they do graduate, it takes them far longer than it used to. AI is still the driving force of US VC investment, accounting for 58 cents of every dollar deployed in 2025. Unprecedented fundings like the $40B OpenAI deal are sending VC investments totals higher, but when we peek behind the curtain, we see the investment numbers remained stubbornly low for deals under $100M. What has changed since the beginning of the year is our outlook on IPOs. Our bearish outlook for IPOs in 2025 is looking more favorable, and it appears the IPO window is at least partially open — though the many have been down rounds. VC-backed tech companies have reached a new equilibrium. Revenue growth rates remain low and slow while profitability has remained higher than in the past as companies stay focused on efficiency. The period of cost cutting, headcount reductions and painful austerity measures seems to be over, and now it’s