IMF-加强社会保护和人力资本以促进包容性增长：几内亚比绍（英）

Bolstering Social Protection and Human Capital to Promote Inclusive GrowthGuinea-BissauBabacar Sarr SIP/2025/110IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodic consultations with member countries. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed on June 13, 2025. This paper is also published separately as IMF Country Report No 25/168. 2025 AUG © 2025 International Monetary Fund SIP/2025/110 IMF Selected Issues Paper African Department Bolstering Social Protection and Human Capital to Promote Inclusive Growth, Guinea-Bissau Prepared by Babacar Sarr Authorized for distribution by Niko Hobdari August 2025 IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodic consultations with member countries. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed on June 13, 2025. This paper is also published separately as IMF Country Report No 25/168. ABSTRACT: Guinea-Bissau’s social sectors face persistent challenges despite the progress made over the past few years. This paper reviews existing social protection programs in the country, assesses the efficiency and adequacy of public spending, and formulates recommendations to enhance value for money in social spending. Government spending on education and social protection has been low compared to regional peers, which partly reflects weak domestic revenue mobilization and volatile donor support. However, total health spending has been relatively high due to large private out-of-pocket payments. The much-needed expansion of health and education services to cover a larger segment of the population is expected to generate significant structural fiscal pressures. Regarding social protection, the analysis shows that Guinea-Bissau would benefit from implementing ambitious and well-targeted social programs and moving away from untargeted subsidies. RECOMMENDED CITATION: Sarr, B. (2025). Bolstering Social Protection and Human Capital to Promote Inclusive Growth. IMF Selected Issues Paper, SIP/2025/110. Washington D.C.: International Monetary Fund. JEL Classification Numbers: H51, H52, H53 Keywords: Spending Efficiency, Health, Education, Social Protection Author’s E-Mail Address: bsarr@imf.org SELECTED ISSUES PAPERS Bolstering Social Protection and Human Capital to Promote Inclusive Growth Guinea-Bissau Prepared by Babacar Sarr1 1 The author would like to thank the national authorities and international development partners for their useful comments and suggestions. GUINEA-BISSAU SELECTED ISSUES Approved By African Department Prepared By Babacar Sarr (AFR) BOLSTERING SOCIAL PROTECTION AND HUMAN CAPITAL TO PROMOTE INCLUSIVE GROWTH __________________________________________________________________________________ 3 A. Introduction .............................................................................................................................................. 3 B. Overview of the Social P