美联储-食品、燃料和事实：全球价格冲击的分配效应（英）

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve SystemInternational Finance Discussion PapersISSN 1073-2500 (Print)ISSN 2767-4509 (Online)Number 1414July 2025Food, Fuel, and Facts: Distributional Effects of Global Price ShocksSaroj Bhattarai, Arpita Chatterjee, and Gautham UdupaPlease cite this paper as:Bhattarai, Saroj, Arpita Chatterjee, and Gautham Udupa (2025).“Food, Fuel, andFacts:Distributional Effects of Global Price Shocks,” International Finance Discus-sion Papers 1414.Washington:Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System,https://doi.org/10.17016/IFDP.2025.1414.NOTE: International Finance Discussion Papers (IFDPs) are preliminary materials circulated to stimu-late discussion and critical comment. The analysis and conclusions set forth are those of the authors anddo not indicate concurrence by other members of the research staff or the Board of Governors. Referencesin publications to the International Finance Discussion Papers Series (other than acknowledgement) shouldbe cleared with the author(s) to protect the tentative character of these papers. Recent IFDPs are availableon the Web at www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/. This paper can be downloaded without charge from theSocial Science Research Network electronic library at www.ssrn.com.Food, Fuel, and Facts:Distributional Effects of Global Price Shocks*Saroj Bhattarai†Univ. of Texas-AustinArpita Chatterjee‡Federal Reserve BoardGautham Udupa§CAFRALAbstractWe estimate distributional implications of global food and oil price shocks by utilizingmonthly panel data on consumption and income from India, and an IV strategy that re-moves variation coming from global demand shocks. While both shocks lead to stagflation-ary aggregate dynamics, they differ in terms of distributional consequences. Consump-tion of lower income deciles is affected more by exogenous increases in food prices, whileconsumption of both tails of the income distribution is affected similarly by exogenous in-creases in oil prices. These heterogeneous negative consumption responses largely mir-ror the pattern of heterogeneity in wage income responses. Increases in relative expendi-ture of food, despite a rise in the relative local price of food, provides clear evidence fornon-homothetic demand in non-durable consumption. Estimating the slopes of the Engelcurve by impulse response matching, we find that food, compared to fuel, is a necessaryconsumption good for all income groups. Comparing the model predictions with the em-pirical consumption responses, we decompose the role played by wage income, relativeprice changes, and non-homotheticity in explaining our results.JEL classification: E31, E32, F62, O11Keywords: Global Price shocks; Food prices; Oil prices; Inequality; Household heterogene-ity; Household consumption; Necessary good; Non-homotheticity; India*We thank Oli Coibion, Ippei Fujiwara, Joaquin Garcia-Cabo, Xing Guo, Nir Jaimovich, Diego Kanzig, MatthewKlepacz, Logan Lewis, Giacomo Mangiante, Petr Sedlacek, Sanjay Sing