IMF-格鲁吉亚：选定问题（英）

© 2025 International Monetary Fund IMF Country Report No. 25/217 GEORGIA SELECTED ISSUES This paper on Georgia was prepared by a staff team of the International Monetary Fund [as background documentation for the periodic consultation with the member country]. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed on July 7, 2025. Copies of this report are available to the public from International Monetary Fund • Publication Services PO Box 92780 • Washington, D.C. 20090 Telephone: (202) 623-7430 • Fax: (202) 623-7201 E-mail: publications@imf.org Web: http://www.imf.org International Monetary Fund Washington, D.C. July 2025 1 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND GEORGIA SELECTED ISSUES Approved By Middle East and Central Asia Department Prepared By Will Abel, Elif Ture (both MCD), Jean-Marc Atsebi (FAD), Rebecca Huang, Marcin Kolasa, and Jesper Linde (all MCM). FOREIGN EXCHANGE INTERVENTION IN GEORGIA: AN APPLICATION OF THE INTEGRATED POLICY FRAMEWORK ____________________________________________________ 4 A. The Integrated Policy Framework ______________________________________________________ 4 B. Applicability of the IPF to Georgia ______________________________________________________ 5 C. Moving from Qualitative to Quantitative Assessment _________________________________ 11 D. Policy Evaluation 2020-2024 __________________________________________________________ 13 E. Conclusions and Policy Recommendations ____________________________________________ 16 FIGURES 1. Net Financial Account __________________________________________________________________ 4 2. Monthly FX Purchases by Commercial Banks in Georgia _______________________________ 6 3. Average Monthly Bid-Ask GEL-USD Spread ____________________________________________ 6 4. Georgia’s 12M UIP Premia ______________________________________________________________ 6 5. Net Financial Account vs UIP Premia ___________________________________________________ 6 6. Forecast Error Variance Decomposition of Exchange Rate ______________________________ 7 7. Private FX Debt to GDP _________________________________________________________________ 8 8. Cross Border Private FX Debt to GDP by Sector ________________________________________ 8 9. Bank FX Debt to GDP ___________________________________________________________________ 8 10. Georgian Banking FX Loans and Liabilities ____________________________________________ 9 11. FX Positions as a Share of Regulatory Capital _________________________________________ 9 12. NFC Cross Border FX Debt and Assets to GDP _______________________________________ 10 13. Inflation Response to 10 Percent Depreciation _______________________________________ 10 14. Inflation Expectations One Year Ahead _______________________________________________ 11 15. Real Exchange Rate and Counterfactual under Deep Markets ________________________ 12 16. The Role of Risk Appetite Shocks in Real Exchange Rate Movements ________________ 12