国会预算办公室-长期社会保障预测的挑战（英）

Presentation at the National Bureau of Economic Research’s Summer Institute 2025: Economics of Social SecurityJuly 23, 2025Molly DahlLabor, Income Security, and Long-Term Analysis DivisionChallenges of Long-Term Social Security ForecastingFor information about the conference, see www.nber.org/conferences/si-2025-economics-social-security. 1Congressional Budget Office, CBO’s Long-Term Projections for Social Security (June 2025), www.cbo.gov/publication/61492.The actuarial balance summarizes the current balance of a trust fund and annual streams of revenues and outlays over a future period, such as 75 years, as a single number. When an actuarial balance is negative, it is called an actuarial deficit.In CBO’s projections, the balance of the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance trust fund declines to zero (that is, the balance of the trust fund is exhausted) in fiscal year 2033, and the balance of the Disability Insurance trust fund declines to zero in 2060. If the two trust funds were combined, the combined balance would be exhausted in fiscal year 2034, 9 years from now.In the first year after the balances of the trust funds are exhausted, the amount of resources available to pay benefits would be 22 percent smaller than the amount of scheduled benefits. The shortfall would increase over time.Over the next 75 years, the actuarial deficit would equal 1.7 percent of GDP, or 4.9 percent of taxable payroll (the total payroll subject to the Social Security tax).Balances of the Social Security Trust Funds and the Actuarial Deficit2The other-foreign-national category includes people who entered the United States illegally and have not obtained a permanent legal status, those who were permitted to enter the country lawfully through the use of parole authority and who may be awaiting proceedings in immigration court, and those who previously resided in the United States legally in a temporary status but who remained in the country after that legal status expired.Net immigration of people in the other-foreign-national category consists of people who join that category upon their arrival from foreign countries, plus people already living in the United States who move into that category when their temporary legal status expires, minus people who move out of the OFN category by emigrating or by obtaining a legal immigration status.Demographics are a key factor in projections of Social Security’s finances, as demographics are a primary determinant of the ratio of the number of people who are employed to the number of people who are receiving Social Security. Research about changes in demographic relationships over time informs CBO’s projections in several ways, including the following:§ CBO's projections of the fertility rate depend on the agency's assessment of the changes in the relationship between fertility and the mother's country of origin over time.§ CBO's projections of the number and characteristics of other foreign nationals are informed by the agency's ass