世界银行-贸易的排放悖论：减少温室气体排放，增加空气污染（英）

Policy Research Working Paper11164Trade’s Emissions ParadoxCutting Greenhouse Gases, Raising Air PollutionEbad Ebadi Enrique Aldaz-CarrollPlanet Vertical &Economic Policy Global Department June 2025 Public Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedProduced by the Research Support TeamAbstractThe Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.Policy Research Working Paper 11164Trade’s impact on emissions is not straightforward. Exist-ing literature on trade and emissions primarily focuses on countries’ net export emissions, often neglecting the emis-sions saved by importing products instead of producing them domestically. The environmental impact from trade is influenced by the balance between emissions gener-ated from exporting goods and emissions avoided by not producing them domestically. This paper investigates the environmental impacts of trade, focusing on the spatial differences in production emissions. Our estimates indicate that direct emissions embodied in exports are significant and rising, accounting for 31 percent of annual greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and 25 percent of annual particulate matter (PM2.5) emissions in 2021. However, considering the direct emissions saved through imports, trade results in a reduction of global GHG emissions annually by up to 2.2 percent from 2004 to 2021, as it allows countries with high emission intensity to import rather than produce domes-tically. This reduction is not observed in PM2.5 emissions, where trade leads to an increase of up to 1 percent. These findings highlight the discrepancy in emission intensities between exporting and importing countries, which influ-ences the impact of trade on global emissions.This paper is a product of the Planet Vertical, Office of the Chief Economist and the Economic Policy Global Department. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/prwp. The authors may be contacted at ebadi@worldbank.org and ealdazcarroll@worldbank.org. Trade's Emissions Paradox: Cutting Greenhouse Gases, Raising Air Pollution Ebad Ebadii, Enrique Aldaz-Carrollii iii Keywords: International Trade; Trade