兰德-通用人工智能如何影响国家的兴衰-对潜在AGI未来的展望（英）

BARRY PAVEL, IVANA KE, GREGORY SMITH, SOPHIA BROWN-HEIDENREICH, LEA SABBAG, ASHWIN ACHARYA, YUSUF MAHMOODHow Artificial General Intelligence Could Affect the Rise and Fall of NationsVisions for Potential AGI FuturesResearch ReportFor more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RRA3034-2.About RANDRAND is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. To learn more about RAND, visit www.rand.org.Research IntegrityOur mission to help improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis is enabled through our core values of quality and objectivity and our unwavering commitment to the highest level of integrity and ethical behavior. To help ensure our research and analysis are rigorous, objective, and nonpartisan, we subject our research publications to a robust and exacting quality-assurance process; avoid both the appearance and reality of financial and other conflicts of interest through staff training, project screening, and a policy of mandatory disclosure; and pursue transparency in our research engagements through our commitment to the open publication of our research findings and recommendations, disclosure of the source of funding of published research, and policies to ensure intellectual independence. For more information, visit www.rand.org/about/research-integrity.RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif.© 2025 RAND Corporation is a registered trademark.Limited Print and Electronic Distribution RightsThis publication and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited; linking directly to its webpage on rand.org is encouraged. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research products for commercial purposes. For information on reprint and reuse permissions, visit www.rand.org/about/publishing/permissions.RR-A3034-2 iii About This Report In this report, we explore eight scenarios for long-run geopolitical outcomes resulting from artificial general intelligence (AGI) development. We explore how the centralization or decentralization of AGI development and ownership may lead to favorable or unfavorable geopolitical consequences for the United States; we also examine a variety of additional assumptions to assist policymakers in their understanding of and preparation for possible futures. Technology and Security Policy Center RAND Global and Emerging Risks (GER) is a division of RAND that delivers rigorous and objective public policy research on the most consequential challenges to civilization and global security.