英文【落基山研究所】2025年中国电力市场展望

2025 China Power Market Outlook: 10 Key Trends for Market PlayersReport / June 2025Authors and AcknowledgmentsAuthorsZihao ChenShuo GaoYi JiangTing LiYujing LiuZiyi LiuJialin TianJun XieLiyue ZhangAuthors listed alphabetically. All authors from RMI unless otherwise noted. ContactsShuo Gao, sgao@rmi.orgCopyrights and CitationShuo Gao et al., 2025 China Power Market Outlook: 10 Key Trends for Market Players, RMI, 2025, https://rmi.org/insight/2025-china-power-market-outlook/.RMI values collaboration and aims to accelerate the energy transition through sharing knowledge and insights. We therefore allow interested parties to reference, share, and cite our work through the Creative Commons CC BY-SA 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/. All images used are from iStock.com unless otherwise noted.About RMIRocky Mountain Institute (RMI) is an independent, nonpartisan nonprofit founded in 1982 that transforms global energy systems through market-driven solutions to secure a prosperous, resilient, clean energy future for all. In collaboration with businesses, policymakers, funders, communities, and other partners, RMI drives investment to scale clean energy solutions, reduce energy waste, and boost access to affordable clean energy in ways that enhance security, strengthen the economy, and improve people’s livelihoods. RMI is active in over 60 countries.rmi.org / 42025 China Power Market Outlook: 10 Key Trends for Market PlayersTable of ContentsExecutive Summary ......................................................................... 7Spot Markets1 Twenty-nine provincial grids are (trial) operating power spot markets, with spot prices falling due to lower coal price, more renewables, and looser supply-demand balance ................. 10By the end of 2025, China will “achieve basic full coverage of provincial spot markets” ......... 10Spot prices in most provinces dropped in 2024, and the downward trend is expected to persist in 2025 .............................................................................................................. 11Medium- to Long-Term Transactions2 Buyers now have greater flexibility in allocating shares across M2L transactions, whose prices closely follow thermal coal and spot market trends .......................................................................... 15In the wholesale market, limits on annual contract shares have been relaxed, allowing more flexibility for generators and consumers to negotiate transaction proportions ............ 15Prices for monthly M2L transactions follow thermal coal price trends .................................. 16Time-segmented M2L transactions continue to evolve, increasingly reflecting spot market price signals ......................................................................................................... 17Conventional Generators3 Capacity pricing restructures the revenue stream of conventional power plants; a new capacity tariff ad