IMF-西班牙疫情后的投资：评估复苏缓慢（英）

Post-Pandemic Investment in Spain: Assessing the Sluggish Recovery Nina Biljanovska SIP/2025/76IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodic consultations with member countries. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed on May 16, 2025. This paper is also published separately as IMF Country Report No 25/122. 2025 JUN © 2025 International Monetary Fund SIP/2025/076 IMF Selected Issues Paper European Department Post-Pandemic Investment in Spain: Assessing the Sluggish Recovery Prepared by Nina Biljanovska* Authorized for distribution by Romain Duval June 2025 IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodic consultations with member countries. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed on May 16, 2025. This paper is also published separately as IMF Country Report No 25/122. ABSTRACT: This paper examines Spain’s investment performance five years after the COVID-19 pandemic. As of 2024, investment had only returned to pre-pandemic levels and remained below historical fundamentals and euro area peers, particularly in transport equipment and other construction. Macroeconomic analysis identifies elevated economic policy uncertainty as a factor holding back investment. Moreover, firm-level data show that investment among small and younger to middle-aged Spanish firms is less responsive to profitability than in comparable firms in larger euro area economies, further suggesting that uncertainty is weighing on investment decisions. For younger and middle-aged firms, high leverage during the pandemic also points to binding financial constraints. RECOMMENDED CITATION: Biljanovska, Nina. “Post-Pandemic Investment in Spain: Assessing the Sluggish Recovery.” IMF Selected Issues Paper (SIP/2025/076), European Department. Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund. JEL Classification Numbers: E22, D22 Keywords: Investment, economic policy uncertainty, firm heterogeneity, profitability, leverage Author’s E-Mail Address: NBiljanovska@imf.org SELECTED ISSUES PAPERS Post-Pandemic Investment in Spain: Assessing the Sluggish Recovery Spain Prepared by Nina Biljanovska1 1 The author would like to thank Romain Duval, Ana Lariau, Carlo Pizzinelli, and Ippei Shibata for their constructive comments, and Longji Li for assistance with the firm-level data. SPAIN 4 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND POST-PANDEMIC INVESTMENT: ASSESSING THE SLUGGISH RECOVERY Five years after the pandemic, gross fixed capital formation has only recently returned to its pre-pandemic level despite the strong rebound in economic activity. The investment recovery has been weak across all components, but particularly so in transport equipment and other construction. Investment has been lagging euro area peers and has also remained below levels implied by its historical drivers, narrowing the gap with these fundamentals only in recent quarters. While Spain’s inv