国际能源署-石油2025-到2030年的分析和预测（英）

Analysis and forecast to 2030Oil2025The IEA examines the full spectrum of energy issues including oil, gas and coal supply and demand, renewable energy technologies, electricity markets, energy efficiency, access to energy, demand side management and much more. Through its work, the IEA advocates policies that will enhance the reliability, affordability and sustainability of energy in its 32 Member countries, 13 Association countries and beyond.This publication and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area.Source: IEA. International Energy Agency Website: www.iea.orgIEA Member countries: AustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanadaCzech Republic DenmarkEstoniaFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyJapanKoreaLatviaLithuania Luxembourg Mexico NetherlandsNew Zealand NorwayPolandPortugalSlovak Republic SpainSweden Switzerland Republic of Türkiye United Kingdom United StatesThe European Commission also participates in the work of the IEAIEA Association countries:Argentina BrazilChinaEgyptIndia Indonesia Kenya Morocco Senegal Singapore South Africa Thailand UkraineINTERNATIONAL ENERGYAGENCYOil 2025 Abstract PAGE | 3 I EA. CC BY 4.0. Abstract Global oil markets have so far had a turbulent 2025. Heightened trade tensions and uncertainty have weighed on the world economy and, by extension, oil demand growth. Combined with the recent OPEC+ decision to accelerate the unwinding of oil production curbs that have been in place for several years, these factors have recently pushed international oil prices to four-year in April and early May. At the same time, shifts in energy policies are affecting oil producers and consumers alike, with oil supply security remaining high on the international energy policy agenda. Oil 2025 looks beyond the short-term horizon covered in the IEA’s monthly Oil Market Report (OMR) to provide a comprehensive overview of evolving oil supply, demand, refining and trade dynamics through 2030. This Report presents detailed forecasts and analysis of oil demand fundamentals across fuels, sectors and regions as well as the supply outlook from planned upstream and downstream projects around the world. The results provide valuable insights on the prospects for spare oil production capacity, product supply and trade flows through 2030. Oil 2025 also explores the implications of surging output of natural gas liquids (NGLs) in an era of petrochemical-driven demand growth. Oil 2025 Acknowledgements PAGE | 4 I EA. CC BY 4.0. Acknowledgements This publication was prepared by the Oil Industry and Markets Division (OIMD) of the Directorate of Energy Markets and Security (EMS). Toril Bosoni, head of OIMD, led the analysis and editing of the Report. The principal authors are, in alphabetical order: Alexander Bressers, Julien Canu, Joel Couse, Ciarán Healy, Yueyang Liu, David