欧洲央行-有组织犯罪与银行：评估反黑手党警察行动对贷款的影响（英）

Working Paper Series Organized crime and banks: assessing the effects of anti-mafia police actions on lending Bruno Buchetti, Michele Fabrizi, Elisabetta Ipino, Ixart Miquel-Flores, Antonio Parbonetti Disclaimer: This paper should not be reported as representing the views of the European Central Bank (ECB). The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the ECB. No 3060 AbstractThis study examines how dismantling Mafia-connected firms affects banks’ lending practices. Using aunique dataset of 667 such firms and loan-level data from the European Central Bank, our analysisshows that anti-Mafia operations precede an increase in bank loans to businesses that operate in areasthat are directly affected by these actions. Specifically, overall loan volumes increase by approximately0.8 percent, which translates to an increase of €1.38 billion in bank loans to these firms. The effectincreases to 1.2 percent in areas that have experienced extensive Mafia activities, amounting to €2.76billion in bank loans, and to 2.1 percent in areas that were once dominated by Mafia-connected firmsthat were engaged in rent extraction, amounting to €3.62 billion in bank loans. Borrowing costsrise concurrently, driven by heightened perceptions of risk following exposure of Mafia infiltration.Cross-sectional analyses indicate that banks’ responses vary significantly because non-local and foreignbanks and banks with no prior exposure to Mafia-affiliated firms face increased challenges relatedto their lack of local knowledge. Removal of Mafia-connected firms also correlates with improvedproductivity in affected municipalities, underscoring financial institutions’ dynamic responses to theeradication of organized crime and the potential for economic revitalization in post-Mafia environments.Keywords: Credit Market, Organized Crime, Credit RiskJEL Classification: E52, E58, G11ECB Working Paper Series No 30601”We have chosen to live with the mafias. Perhaps because it has never been possible to fullyunderstand its danger and its ability to pollute and distort social, political and economic relations. Forsome time now, the mafias, especially in Italy but also in other parts of the world, have been alteringthe rules of the market and democracy, creating social inequalities and polluting the territories inwhich they operate.”(Nicola Gratteri, Italian Magistrate, Essayist and Public Prosecutor)Non-technical summaryThe infiltration of legitimate businesses by organized crime, particularly Mafia organizations, has long been achallenge in many parts of the world, including Italy. These criminal activities disrupt fair competition, suppressinnovation, and distort economic markets, leading to reduced growth and increased inequality. This paper examinesthe impact of dismantling Mafia-connected firms through targeted anti-Mafia police actions on the financial sector,focusing on lending practices and credit availability.One of the most significant insigh