Deutsche Bank-Asia Macro Strategy Notes Dashboard

16/06/2025 00:03:15 GMT16/06/2025 00:03:15 GMTDeutsche BankResearchJune 2025Asia Strategy DashboardIMPORTANT RESEARCH DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. UNTIL 19th MARCH 2021 INCOMPLETE DISCLOSUREINFORMATION MAY HAVE BEEN DISPLAYED, PLEASE SEE APPENDIX 1 FOR FURTHER DETAILS.Vaninder Singhvaninder.singh@db.comJalaj Singhjalaj-b.singh@db.comBryant Xubryant.xu@db.comJoey Chungjoey.chung@db.comPerry Kojodjojoperry.kojodjojo@db.comSameer Goelsameer.goel@db.comHazel Laihazel-a.lai@db.comMacro & FlowsDeutsche Bank Corporate DivisionDate, Location, Speaker name, Name of EventAsia Strategy Team | June 20253Macro overview of the regionSource: Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP, WIND, CEIC, Haver AnalyticsNote: The monthly economic indicators are transformed into rolling 10-year z-scores. AverageChinaIndiaIndonesiaMalaysiaKoreaPhilsSingaporeTaiwanThailand0.4 Export growth0.1-0.1-0.10.2-0.10.40.71.61.00.2 IP0.5-0.1-0.8-0.10.5-0.20.21.50.2-0.6 Inflation-1.4-1.2-1.2-0.30.0-0.9-0.80.5-0.50.0 Inflation expectation0.2-0.40.1-0.10.20.00.1-0.20.1-0.7 Money supply-1.2-0.2-1.1-1.3-0.4-1.10.4-0.9-0.80.8 Unemployment0.3-0.11.31.01.20.80.31.60.90.3 Import growth-0.40.30.40.6-0.3-0.10.31.20.6-0.3 Private credit-1.30.00.1-0.3-1.00.20.91.0-2.2-0.1 PMI headline-0.21.0-0.30.1-0.7-0.3-0.3-0.50.1-0.1 PMI: ouput-0.20.9-0.40.2-0.4-0.1-0.3-0.2-0.3-0.1 PMI: new order-0.20.9-0.40.2-0.7-0.2-0.3-0.40.1-0.2 Consumption-0.2-0.3-0.3-0.2-0.8-0.3-0.1-0.60.8A mixed picture across the region;(1) inflation & consumption trends are the clearest;(2) alongside poor labor market outcomes.Deutsche Bank Corporate DivisionDate, Location, Speaker name, Name of EventAsia Strategy Team | June 20254Growth trackers4.44.85.25.66.06.46.87.27.65.05.56.06.57.07.58.08.5Jan-23Mar-23May-23Jul-23Sep-23Nov-23Jan-24Mar-24May-24Jul-24Sep-24Nov-24Jan-25Mar-25May-25Jul-25Daily growth indicator 21d right-shiftedINR NDOIS 1Y1Y (rhs)1.82.22.63.03.43.84.20.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.0Jan-23Mar-23May-23Jul-23Sep-23Nov-23Jan-24Mar-24May-24Jul-24Sep-24Nov-24Jan-25Mar-25May-25Jul-25Daily growth indicator 21d right-shiftedKRW 1Y1Y (rhs)-2.5-2.0-1.5-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52.0012345678Jan-23Mar-23May-23Jul-23Sep-23Nov-23Jan-24Mar-24May-24Jul-24Sep-24Nov-24Jan-25Mar-25May-25Jul-25Daily growth indicator (lhs)China-exposed assets 90d forward (rhs)-12-10-8-6-4-2024681012142.83.03.23.43.63.84.04.24.44.64.8Jan-23Mar-23May-23Jul-23Sep-23Nov-23Jan-24Mar-24May-24Jul-24Sep-24Nov-24Jan-25Mar-25May-25US 1Y1Y (lhs)US Weekly Indicator right-shifted by 21dChina’s data has been outperforming market expectations…… while India’s data has been underperformingThere are some early signs of growth support in South Korea…… even as the US loss of momentum hasn’t fully reversed yetSource: Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP, WIND, CEICNote: China exposed assets is an indicator using PCA on: MSCI China growth to value, HSCEI, AUD, NZD, CLP, CNH, CGB-10y, copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel, iron ore. Deutsche Bank Corporate DivisionDate