全球能源转型展望2050：CCS（英）

KEY CONSIDERATIONSPOLICY & FINANCINGOUTLOOKTECHNOLOGIES & COSTSCarbon capture and storage: from turning point in 2025 to scale by mid-centuryENERGY TRANSITION OUTLOOK CCS TO 2050FOREWORDThe surge in installation reflects a widening appreciation of the decarbonization role of CCS. So far, the heavy lifting on carbon capture development has been done within oil and gas production — for natural gas processing and enhanced oil recovery. But after 2030, the market for CCS will increasingly address hard-to-decarbonize emission sources. With this shift, we forecast that North America will be joined by Europe as a leading region for CCS deployment.In the hierarchy of emissions reduction strategies, the first consideration should always be energy efficiency. Next is the use of renewables to replace fossil energy sources. Finally, there is CCS, which occupies an increasingly important niche: tackling emissions in hard-to-decarbonize sectors. This includes CCS for process emissions in manufacturing, and in the production of low-carbon hydrogen from the steam reforming of natural gas. Our forecast is that CCS will grow significantly: from 41 Mt/yr today to 1.3 Gt of CO2 captured and stored Ditlev EngelCEO DNV Energy Systemsin the year 2050. That is a big uplift, but it falls short of where CCS should be in a net-zero outcome. Furthermore, we forecast that energy-related emissions roughly halve from today to 2050, and so, ironically, it is in today’s high-emitting world where CCS is best applied. The biggest barrier to the very much needed acceleration of CCS deployment is policy uncertainty. Policy shifts, not technology or costs, have been responsible for many CCS project failures. However, policy support for CCS is firming across most world regions. Indeed, carbon markets and voluntary offsets will evolve to the point where even the more expensive carbon removal technologies such as direct air capture (DAC) will be widely deployed towards the end of our forecast period.I remind readers that DNV’s ‘most likely’ forecast of our energy system to 2050 is one associated with a dangerous 2.2˚C of global warming by 2100. Yet, in this most likely future, we find that CCS will scale rapidly and will attract significant investment — some USD 700 billion over the next two-and-a-half decades, without taking into account onboard CCS for ships. However, in any net-zero future, orders of magnitude more CCS will be needed. DNV stands ready to work with customers worldwide to build safe and reliable CCS — faster. I am delighted to introduce this report on DNV’s global forecast for CCS through to 2050. The reason for issuing this report now is that we believe CCS is at a turning point. The CCS project pipeline has grown significantly, and, in the next five years, we expect operational capacity to increase substantially.Cover photo: Northern Pioneer CO2 transport ship at Northern Lights receiving terminal in Øygarden, Norway. Photo: Ruben Soltvedt / Northern Lights