赞比亚：加强现金预测的技术援助报告（英）-IMF

TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REPORT ZAMBIA Strengthening Cash Forecasting January 2025 Prepared By Davit Gamkrelidze Authoring Departments/Institutions: Fiscal Affairs Department IMF Technical Assistance Report | 2 ©2025 International Monetary Fund The contents of this document constitute technical advice provided by the staff of the International Monetary Fund to the authorities of the Ministry of Finance and National Planning of Zambia (the "CD recipient") in response to their request for technical assistance. Unless the CD recipient specifically objects to such disclosure, this document (in whole or in part) or summaries thereof may be disclosed by the IMF to the IMF Executive Director for Zambia, to other IMF Executive Directors and members of their staff, as well as to other agencies or instrumentalities of the CD recipient, and upon their request, to World Bank staff, and other technical assistance providers and donors with legitimate interest members of the Steering Committee of Debt Management Facility (see Staff Operational Guidance on the Dissemination of Capacity Development Information). Publication or Disclosure of this report (in whole or in part) to parties outside the IMF other than agencies or instrumentalities of the CD recipient, World Bank staff, other technical assistance providers and donors with legitimate interest members of the Steering Committee of Debt Management Facility shall require the explicit consent of the CD recipient and the IMF’s Fiscal Affairs Department. The analysis and policy considerations expressed in this publication are those of IMF’s Fiscal Affairs Department. This technical assistance (TA) was provided with financial support from Debt Management Facility International Monetary Fund, IMF Publications P.O. Box 92780, Washington, DC 20090, U.S.A. T. +(1) 202.623.7430 • F. +(1) 202.623.7201 publications@IMF.org IMF.org/pubs IMF Technical Assistance Report | 3 Contents Acronyms and Abbreviations _________________________________________________ 4 Preface ___________________________________________________________________ 5 Executive Summary _________________________________________________________ 6 I. Introduction ______________________________________________________________ 9 II. Current situation ________________________________________________________ 10 A. Budget credibility ___________________________________________________ 10 B. Cash Forecasting ___________________________________________________ 11 C. Banking Arrangements and IFMIS Rollout ________________________________ 13 D. TSA Structure and Liquidity Challenges __________________________________ 14 III. Options for Improvement _________________________________________________ 17 A. Addressing Weaknesses for Effective Operationalization of the CMU ___________ 17 B. CFAT Implementation _______________________________________________ 19 Boxes Box 1: Phases of CFAT Adoption in Zambia ___________________________________________ 20 Figures F