英文【高盛】2025年第一季度业绩后更新模型；在增长前景不明朗的情况下，司法干预影响较小成为亮点；买入

We update our model for HAPV3 after 1Q25 results, maintaining our Buy rating while tweaking our 12m TP to BRL 4.2/sh (from BRL 3.8/sh before). We believe that the highlight of the last set of results was a lower-than-anticipated impact of judicialization (that is, legal intervention) on the company. We are carrying the 0.4pp beat in contingencies reported in Q1 (2.9% of revenues on a like-for-like basis, vs our estimate ahead of the results of 3.3%) into the upcoming quarters, which accounts for essentially all of the adj. EBITDA margin revisions we are making for 2025/2026 (+0.4pp/+0.3pp). Following our EBITDA estimate hikes, we are revising our adj. net income projections by +5%/+4% for 2025/2026 (to BRL 1,407 mn/BRL 1,892mn). The uncertain medium-term growth outlook remains our main concern on the thesis, following a weak 1Q25 print (-70k beneficiaries QoQ) and challenging competitive landscape, especially in Sao Paulo: we model -26k beneficiaries of net adds in 2025. Even amid this growth uncertainty and the stock’s recent outperformance (+20% since announcement of 1Q25 results on May 12, vs +12%/+1% for RDOR3/Ibovespa), we still see HAPV3’s current adj. P/E of 12x/9x (2025/2026) as an appealing entry point for the stock.Gustavo Miele +55(11)3371-0834 | gustavo.miele@gs.com Goldman Sachs do Brasil CTVM S.A.Hapvida Participacoes (HAPV3.SA): Updating model post 1Q25; milder judicialization impact the highlight amid uncertain growth outlook; Buy27 May 2025 | 7:34AM BRT Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S. Moderation of judicialization impact on the company was a relief to investors A brief recap of 1Q25. After a set of results in 4Q24 in which the company had restated several P&L moving parts (more detail here), Hapvida reported a cleaner 1Q25, which in our view drove not only an upward revision in earnings but also a decompression in multiple due to better operational visibility on the story. One of the highlights of the last quarter was the deceleration in both contingencies and constitution of new judicial deposits, which was an indication of the company’s higher capacity to address beneficiaries lawsuits. As we show below, HAPV’s ratio of its civil judicial deposits covered by civil contingencies (i.e., coverage ratio) remained above 100%, at 106% (vs 104% in 4Q24), corroborating our view of limited risks of underprovisioning at the company. In spite of sequential improvements on that front, we are conservatively assuming conting