麦肯锡-从保护到促进：产业政策的新时代（英）

May 2025Geopolitics PracticeFrom protection to promotion: The new age of industrial policyGovernment subsidies, investment incentives, and other industrial-policy actions have almost quadrupled since 2017. Here’s how business leaders can navigate the impact of industrial policy on their markets.by Cindy Levy, Matt Watters, and Shubham Singhalwith James IversExpanding tariffs may be capturing the headlines, but industrial-policy measures are on the rise as well. Governments have long implemented subsidies, incentives, and other interventions in domestic economies to support employment, critical manufacturing, and other national priorities. However, as the establishment of the World Trade Organization and the expansion of global trade made free-market and free-trade policies the global norm, many countries put less emphasis on supporting domestic industries.1 The COVID-19 pandemic and rising geopolitical tensions, which intensified economic and global supply chain vulnerabilities, reversed that trend. Between 2017 and 2024,2 global industrial-policy actions increased by approximately 390 percent,3 with a particular focus on critical industries such as defense, semiconductors, and high-end equipment.Such measures can significantly affect the economic environment in which businesses operate, including market access (through export and import restrictions, for example), labor availability (through interventions such as workforce development initiatives), core business operations, and the economics of capital investments (via investment subsidies, for instance). In some industries, government incentives are so sizable that they alter the competitive balance: In 2023, subsidies for battery technologies represented nearly 30 percent of global battery revenues.4As companies grapple with today’s complex geopolitical landscape, understanding the full scope of government incentives can help business leaders both maximize returns on investments and navigate the competitive dynamics in global markets.Those who integrate industrial-policy considerations into strategic decisions can reduce their costs of capital, minimize risk in priority innovation projects, and find new avenues for growth.Three actions in particular can position businesses for success. First, conducting a survey of industrial-policy measures across geographies and sectors can help companies ensure they are considering all relevant programs. Second, understanding the “durability” of incentives can help decision-makers validate the resilience and longevity of business cases that incorporate such programs. Last, benchmarking the organization’s use of industrial-policy measures against primary competitors can show executives how incentives, subsidies, and other government supports affect the competitive playing field.A brief history of industrial policyGovernments pursue industrial policies to advance economic and geopolitical interests.5 While tariffs, import and export restrictions, and regulato