英文【高盛】美洲零售服装零售在第一季度业绩公布前重新审视我们的折扣价追踪指标

In this note, we discuss key investor questions regarding the off-price group and update our brand momentum and store traffic trackers. While tariffs remain fluid, the reduction in the China tariff rate to 30% (paused vs. 145% prior) on May 12th has largely relieved investor concerns regarding the home category. As a result, focus has shifted back to the relative market share capture opportunity and performance differentials by company. We continue to field investor queries regarding health by consumer demographic cohort, particularly the low income consumer. For the sector in aggregate, we believe focus will be centered on the magnitude of 1Q comp performance and commentary regarding exit rate trends, inventory availability opportunities by category, and quantification of headwinds from tariffs. Bottom line: We remain constructive on off-price into 1Q and continue to see the group as a relative winner in a choppy macro. We believe recent tariff policy changes are likely to yield stronger clearance buying opportunities for the sector overall. That said, we do expect some headwind from tariffs to emerge with potential pressure on near-term gross margin (direct-sourced goods) and note some debate on the magnitude of comp trend in the quarter by banner (for example, BURL). Key questions for the sector into the quarter: How is demand trending? Off-price retailers continue to benefit from ntrade-down dynamics, but the health of the consumer remains an ongoing concern given recent macro reads (such as consumer confidence). Off-price companies largely guided the quarter from behind the expected rate, meaning that weather impacts could weigh on outperformance. However, store traffic trends remain relatively resilient per our trackers and HundredX data suggests healthy ongoing trends. Looking ahead, investor focus will likely turn to whether this momentum can continue if consumer stress deepens or if choppy week-to-week trends persist. We expect value-seeking behavior to benefit the sector, but note that merchandising discipline and inventory mix, especially toward essentials and recognizable brands, will be key to sustaining momentum into 2Q and beyond. What is the impact of tariffs? Off-price’s elevated exposure to home, which has nsignificant direct sourcing exposure to China overall, weighed on investor sentiment considerably following the increase to a 145% tariff on China. That Brooke Roach, CFA +1(212)357-2421 | brooke.roach@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Evan Dorschner, CFA +1(801)212-7339 | evan.dorschner@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Savannah Sommer +1(801)744-0688 | savannah.sommer@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Mentesnot Adamu +1(801)744-0630 | mentesnot.adamu@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLCAmericas Retail: Apparel Retail: Revisiting our off-price trackers ahead of 1Q results18 May 2025 | 5:00PM MDT Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a