IEF-石油市场5月报比较分析（英）

May 2025Summary and Oil Market ContextDemandOPEC has maintained its global oil demand growth forecast unchanged in its latest assessment, projecting year-on-year growth of approximately 1.3 mb/d in both 2025 and 2026. Demand in OECD countries is expected to rise modestly by 0.1 mb/d in each year, while non-OECD regions—accounting for the bulk of the growth—are projected to see an increase of 1.2 mb/d annually over the same period.The EIA has revised its 2025 global oil demand growth forecast upward by 0.1 mb/d compared to the previous month, projecting year-on-year growth of 1.0 mb/d. However, this represents a downward revision of 0.4 mb/d relative to the January 2025 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). For 2026, the EIA anticipates a further deceleration in global demand growth to 0.9 mb/d. Regionally, India’s fuel demand is projected to increase by 0.2 mb/d in 2025 and 0.3 mb/d in 2026, while China’s consumption is projected to rise by 0.2 mb/d in both years.The IEA forecasts global oil demand growth of 0.7 mb/d y/y in 2025, despite an expected decline in OECD consumption of approximately 120 kb/d. For 2026, the IEA sees global demand growth of 0.8 mb/d y/y. Newly available data released by the IEA also indicate an average annual increase in global oil demand of approximately 0.3 mb/d between 2022 and 2024.The gap across agencies in global oil demand growth forecasts stands at 0.6 mb/d for 2025 and 0.5 mb/d for 2026, year-on-year.SupplyOPEC projects a year-on-year growth of 0.9 mb/d in non-Declaration of Cooperation (non-DoC) liquids production and DoC NGLs in 2025, representing a downward revision of 0.1 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment. For 2026, growth is also projected at 0.9 mb/d y/y. The projected supply expansion is primarily driven by the United States, Canada, Brazil, and Argentina in both years.The EIA projects year-on-year growth of 1.3 mb/d in non-OPEC supply and OPEC NGLs in 2025, followed by 1.2 mb/d in 2026. For non-DoC supply and DoC NGLs, EIA estimates growth of 1.4 mb/d in 2025—down by 0.1 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment—and projects growth of 1.0 mb/d in 2026.The IEA has maintained its forecast for non-OPEC supply and OPEC NGLs growth at 1.4 mb/d year-on-year in 2025, alongside an unchanged estimate of 1.3 mb/d for non-DoC supply and DoC NGLs. For 2026, the IEA projects continued growth of approximately 1.0 mb/d in both non-OPEC and non-DoC supply, representing a downward revision of 0.1 mb/d year-on-year for each category.2Summary of 2024-2026 Balances3•OPEC has maintained its forecast for global oil demand to grow by 1.3 million barrels per day (mb/d) year-on-year in both 2025 and 2026.•Non-OPEC supply and OPEC NGLs may grow by 1.3 mb/d and 1.4 mb/d y/y in 2025, according to projections from the EIA and IEA, respectively. 20242024 Y/Y1Q252Q253Q254Q2520252025 Y/Y1Q262Q263Q264Q2620262026 Y/YIEA103.20.8102.5103.9104.9104.3103.90.7103.2104.6105.7105.2104.70.8OPEC103.71.5104.1104.3105.4106.2105.01.3105.4105.510