英文【高盛】资本市场仪表板5月情况检查交易所交易量放缓，固定收益资金流强劲，赞助商支持的并购交易量疲软

Alexander Blostein, CFA +1(212)357-9976 | alexander.blostein@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Luke Bianculli +1(212)357-4319 | luke.bianculli@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Mohak Batra +1(332)245-7661 | mohak.batra@gs.com Goldman Sachs India SPL Anthony Corbin +1(212)357-7512 | anthony.corbin@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Aditya Sharma, CFA +1(212)934-9869 | aditya.x.sharma@gs.com Goldman Sachs India SPL Michael Vinci +1(212)357-8239 | michael.vinci@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLCAt CME, Rates volumes are showing a +9% ogrowth vs. May24TD levels but are tracking down -12% y/y vs full May 2024 (and 14% below GSe). Similarly, in the broader complex at CME, volumes are tracking down 2% y/y vs. May 2024 and are 8% below GSe. At ICE, we see risks to Energy estimates with oMayTD ADV -9% relative to our estimates (though still represents 10% y/y growth). This is partially offset with strong Financials volumes, bringing May TD F&O volumes 5% below our estimates. CBOE Index Options volume growth has held in owith MayTD ADV up 17% vs. May 2024 but is 2% below our volume estimates which included a meaningful slowdown relative to March/April. VIX options and futures are down sharply but SPX options are holding in better. Retail volumes have remained resilient as the o“buy the dip” mentality continues to unfold, with off exchange volumes up ~50% vs. May 2024. 19 May 2025 | 6:13AM EDTCapital Markets Dashboard May check-in: Slower exchange volumes, Fixed Income flow strength, and weak sponsor-backed M&A volumesHalfway through May, we check in on Capital Markets KPIs. Key notables include: (1) A sharp decline in Exchange traded volumes following a record April, with most now tracking modestly below our estimates for May and likely resulting in negative EPS revisions for Exchanges over the near-term; (2) Recovery in Fixed Income flows with a larger tilt toward ETF’s; and (3) Slow pace of Sponsor activity and SBL markets running near 2022 lows QTD. More details below. Exchange volumes: After a record April, exchanges nvolumes are decelerating with many products now falling below our estimates for May - likely resulting in modest negative EPS revision risk across the group. We include some of the notable products below: At TW, MTD SEF >=1Yr ADV is tracking down 9% oy/y (vs. full May 2024). Based off management commentary, we estimate compression trading as a % of ADV is down to 52% in May - implying risk ADV growth of +10% y/y while compression ADV is down 16% y/y. Given this dynamic, we see May revenues growing in the 13% y/y growth range (using 1Q25 FPM of $3.65/mn). Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appe