世界银行-发展中经济体的劳动力市场恐慌：墨西哥工厂关闭带来的耻辱与人力资本损失（英）

Policy Research Working Paper11116Labor Market Scarring in a Developing EconomyStigma versus Lost Human Capital from Plant Closings in MexicoFrancisco J. AriasDaniel LedermanProsperity Vertical Vice PresidencyMay 2025 Public Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedProduced by the Research Support TeamAbstractThe Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.Policy Research Working Paper 11116This paper estimates the magnitude of labor market scar-ring in a developing economy, a setting that has been understudied by the labor scarring literature dominated by advanced economies. The paper assesses the contribu-tions of “stigma” versus “lost human capital,” which cause earnings losses among displaced workers relative to non-dis-placed workers. The findings indicate that job separations caused by plant closings result in sizable and long-lasting reductions in earnings, with an average decline of 7.5 per-cent in hourly wages over a nine-year period. The estimate for one year after a plant closing is larger, at a decline of 10.8 percent. In a common sample, after controlling for unobserved, time-invariant individual characteristics, the impact of a plant closing declines from 11.9 to 8.2 percent. These results imply that stigma in the labor market due to imperfect information about workers (captured by unob-servable worker characteristics) accounts for 30.8 percent of the average earnings losses, whereas lost employer-specific human capital explains the remaining 69.2 percent. The paper explores the effects of job separations due to plant closings on other labor market outcomes, including hours worked and informality, and provides estimates across gen-ders and levels of education.This paper is a product of the Prosperity Vertical Vice Presidency. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/prwp. The authors may be contacted at fariasvazquez@worldbank.org and dlederman@worldbank.org. Labor Market Scarring in a Developing Economy: Stigma versus Lost Human Capital from Plant Closings in Mexico Francisco J. Arias and Daniel Lederman1 Keywords: Labor market, job disp