英文【高盛】总体活动大致稳定，区域差异显著：中东欧、中东和非洲地区（CEEMEA）总体采购经理人指数（PMI）4月下降，尽管区域内存在显著差异

CEEMEA Aggregate PMI Declined in April, Although with Notable Divergence Within the Region The CEEMEA aggregate PMI continued to decline in April, from 50.4 to 50.1, its third-lowest reading since the Covid pandemic (Exhibit 1). The most notable decline was in South Africa, where the manufacturing PMI fell from 48.7 to 44.7 – its weakest reading since the pandemic. PMI developments were noticeably better across the rest of SSA, with Ghana seeing an increase from 50.6 to 52.6 (a 4-year high), Kenya’s PMI increasing from 51.7 to 52.0 (a 3-year high), and Nigeria seeing a slight decline from high levels, a 0.1p fall to 54.2. MENA saw PMIs mostly declining, with the Saudi Arabian PMI falling from 58.1 to 55.6, the Egyptian PMI weakening from 49.2 to 48.5, the Qatari PMI falling by 1.3p to 50.7 and the Emirati PMI unchanged at 54.4. PMIs converged in CEE, falling in the countries with relatively high readings (Hungary from 51.4 to 50.2 and Poland from 50.7 to 50.2) but rising in the countries with low readings (Czechia from 48.3 to 48.9 and Romania from 46.9 to 48.3). Finally, in Turkey, the PMI was unchanged at 47.3 and in Russia, the PMI remained in ‘contractionary territory’ (i.e. below 50.0) for the second consecutive month after three years of expansionary PMI prints, rising from 48.2 to 49.3 Aggregate CAI Unchanged in April Our Current Activity Indicators (CAIs) – which distil a wide range of indicators into a single measure of economic activity – remained unchanged at +2.0% (mom annl.) between March and April, below our range for potential growth in the CEEMEA region (+3.0-3.5%) (Exhibit 2). CAIs fell in the CEE-4, with the largest decline, albeit from relatively high levels, in Czechia (from +3.2% to +2.4%), followed by Romania (from +3.8% to +3.6%) and Hungary (from -1.3% to -1.4%). On the other hand, Poland’s CAI rose, from +2.4% to +3.1%. There were slight rises in the CAIs, but from relatively low levels, in both Russia (from +0.4% to +0.7%) and South Africa (from +0.4% to +0.5%). On the other hand, the CAI was unchanged at +2.9% in Turkey and the CAI fell somewhat in Israel, from +4.5% to +3.4%. Financial Conditions Tighter on Aggregate, Notable Tightening in Turkey Financial conditions in CEEMEA, as measured by our Financial Conditions Index (FCI), tightened slightly, by +0.2% between March and April (from 103.8 to 104.0, Exhibit 5). However, there was significant diversion across the region (Exhibit 6), Kevin Daly +44(20)7774-5908 | kevin.daly@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Clemens Grafe +44(20)7774-3435 | clemens.grafe@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Andrew Matheny +44(20)7051-6069 | andrew.matheny@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Farouk Soussa +44(20)7051-9349 | farouk.soussa@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Basak Edizgil +44(20)7774-9878 | basak.edizgil@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Johan Allen +44(20)7774-7122 | johan.allen@gs.com Goldman Sachs InternationalCEEMEA Growth Monitor Aggregate Activity Broadly Stable, With