Global Fund Manager Survey-The Bear Necessities
Trading ideas and investment strategies discussed herein may give rise to significant risk and are not suitable for all investors. Investors should have experience in relevant markets and the financial resources to absorb any losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies. >> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst under the FINRA rules. Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that take responsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions. BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Refer to important disclosures on page 26 to 28. 12817525 Global Fund Manager Survey The Bear Necessities BofA April Global Fund Manager Survey Bottom line: 5th most bearish FMS in past 25 years, 4th highest recession expectations of past 20 years, record no. of global investors intending to cut US stocks (Chart 1); FMS max bearish on macro, not quite max bearish on market (“peak fear” norm is ≈6% cash level vs 4.8% today); but our FMS says a. April asset price lows to hold near-term, b. big upside needs big tariff easing, big Fed rate cuts, and/or economic data resilience. On Macro & Policy: net 82% of respondents say global economy to weaken (30-year high), 42% say recession likely, inflation expectations highest since Jun'21, probability of “hard” landing surges to 49% (vs 37% “soft,” 3% “no” landing); 41% of investors predict 3 or more Fed cuts on sharp deterioration of “liquidity conditions.” On Tail Risks & Crowds: #1 crowded trade: “long gold” (49%), not “long Mag 7” for 1st time since Mar’23; #1 tail risk: “trade war = recession”; 73% say “US exceptionalism” has peaked, as FMS outlook for both US$ & US profits rated worst since 2006/07. On Allocation: record increase in bond allocation, global equity allocation lowest since Jul'23, US stock allocation sees largest 2-month drop ever; investors most UW cyclicals vs defensives since May’20, cut industrials (most UW since Aug'11), tech (most UW since Nov’22), banks, discretionary, add utilities (most OW since Dec'08), pharma & staples. Contrarian trades: lower tariffs & big Fed cuts…long US stocks, US$, global cyclicals, and short gold, bonds, defensives; but if recession concerns turn into reality…short EU & EM stocks, and bonds (US capital flight + global fiscal panic). Chart 1: Record number of FMS global investors intending to cut US equities US equity intentions: want to overweight vs underweight Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH Apr'25-65-45-25-5153555'01'03'05'07'09'11'13'15'17'19'21'23'25US equity intentionswant to overweightwant
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