世界银行-津巴布韦灾害风险金融诊断（英）

Public Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedTABLE OF CONTENTS123456Assessment of climate risk and the impact of past disasters141.1 Overview of disasters141.2 Droughts181.3 Floods231.4 Impact of disasters on household poverty261.5 Impact of disasters on MSMEs271.6 Macroeconomic and fiscal impacts of disasters28Legal and institutional framework for DRF322.1 Overview of the legal framework for DRF322.2 Overview of the institutional framework for disaster risk finance362.3 Early warning system38Status of disaster risk financing instruments and mechanisms393.1 Ex ante funding403.2 Ex post funding423.3 Social safety nets and existing distribution mechanisms49Review of financial markets524.1 Insurance market524.2 Financial inclusion and financial protection584.3 Capital markets62Funding gap analysis and risk financing strategies665.1 Fiscal cost analysis665.2 Funding gap and comparison with risk-layered strategy67Recommended options to strengthen financial resilience716.1 Improve the policy framework, public financial management, and risk-informed decision-making716.2 Strengthen the financial sector and enhance the use of insurance726.3 Strengthen existing instruments and adopt new risk financing instruments73Acknowledgments06Abbreviations07Executive summary08BOXESFIGURESBox 1: Kenyan Hunger Safety Net Program51Box 2: The Philippines’ development and implementation of national public asset insurance program56Box 3: Building resilience through financial inclusion59Box 4: Risk layering: Key trade-offs and considerations when establishing a disaster risk finance strategy 69Figure 1: Status of risk financing instruments in Zimbabwe11Figure 2: Funding gap at various return periods assuming pre-arranged funds of US$32 million 11Figure 3: Zimbabwe’s scores on World Risk Index 2022 (normalized score ranging from 0 to 100) 14Figure 4: Disaster risk profile of Zimbabwe, 1975–2022 (left) and population affected by drought (right)16Figure 5: Cross-country comparison of vulnerability and readiness to improve climate resilience17Figure 6: Provincial distribution of main crops in Zimbabwe20Figure 7: Value of major crops grown in Zimbabwe over time (2016 constant US dollars)20Figure 8: Provincial-level data on average drought intensity (left), duration (center), and return period (right)21Figure 9: Provincial losses by crop and year22Figure 10: On-grid electricity generation in Zimbabwe 23Figure 11: Average losses from flood at different return periods24Figure 12: Residential and commercial property values at risk of flood damage (left) and loss and damage ratios (right)24Figure 13: Annual number of recorded storms in East Africa25Figure 14: Relationship between agricultural value added and overall GDP growth29Figure 15: Annual inflation rate, 2010–202230Figure 16: Compositio