WTO最新报告：2025年全球商品贸易量将下降0.2%，中国商品出口将在北美以外地区增长4%至9（英）

Global Trade Outlookand StatisticsApril 2025About the WTOThe World Trade Organization is the international body dealing with the global rules of trade between nations. Its main function is to ensure that trade flows as smoothly, predictably and freely as possible, with a level playing field for all its members.DisclaimerThis publication has been prepared under the WTO Secretariat’s own responsibility. It does not necessarily reflect the positions or opinions of WTO members and is without prejudice to their rights and obligations under the WTO agreements. The opinions expressed and arguments employed herein are not intended to provide any authoritative or legal interpretation of the provisions of the WTO agreements and shall in no way be read or understood to have any legal implications whatsoever.The terms and illustrations used in this publication do not constitute or imply an expression of opinion by the WTO Secretariat concerning the status or boundaries of any territory.AcknowledgementsThis report was prepared under the leadership of Ralph Ossa, WTO Chief Economist and Director of the Economic Research and Statistics Division. Lead contributors were Coleman Nee, Barbara D’Andrea Adrian, Eddy Bekkers, Michael Blanga-Gubbay and Marc Auboin. Additional contributions through statistical production, modelling or drafting were provided by Shradha Bhatia, Lori Chang, Fabio Della Coletta, Florian Eberth, Lee Humphreys, Hryhorii Kalachyhin, Tinotenda Mataire, Donal Smith and Ying Yan. The Information and External Relations Division provided valuable support on the production of the report.1Contents1. Executive summary 22. Outlook for world trade in 2025 and 2026 3Merchandise trade 3Commercial services trade 9Trade-related indicators 163. Drivers of trade and output 174. Fragmentation of world trade 205. Analytical chapter: Modelling trade policy uncertainty 22 and changes in tariffs6. Appendix tables 31Appendix Table 1: 31 Leading exporters and importers in world merchandise trade, 2024Appendix Table 2: 32 Leading exporters and importers in world merchandise trade excluding intra-EU trade, 2024Appendix Table 3: 33 Leading exporters and importers of commercial services, 2024Appendix Table 4: 34 Leading exporters and importers of commercial services excluding intra-EU trade, 2024Appendix Table 5: 35 Leading exporters and importers of digitally delivered services, 20247. Bibliography 36 GLOBAL TRADE OUTLOOK AND STATISTICS - APRIL 20252Executive summary• The outlook for global trade has deteriorated sharply due to a surge in tariffs and trade policy uncertainty (TPU). Based on measures in place as of 14 April, including the suspension of “reciprocal tariffs” by the United States, the volume of world merchandise trade is now expected to decline by 0.2% in 2025 before posting a modest recovery of 2.5% in 2026. The new estimate for 2025 is nearly three percentage points lower than it would have been without recent policy shifts, and marks a significa