IMF-南非的财政框架：改革的挑战和选择（英）

South Africa's Fiscal Framework: Challenges and Options for Reform Asma Khalid and Anh Dinh Minh Nguyen SIP/2025/024IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodic consultations with member countries. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed on January 7, 2025. This paper is also published separately as IMF Country Report No 25/28. 2025 MAR © 2025 International Monetary Fund SIP/2025/024 IMF Selected Issues Paper African Department South Africa's Fiscal Framework: Challenges and Options for Reform Prepared by Asma Khalid and Anh Dinh Minh Nguyen Authorized for distribution by Delia Velculescu March 2025 IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodic consultations with member countries. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed on January 7, 2025. This paper is also published separately as IMF Country Report No 25/28. ABSTRACT: South Africa’s public debt has tripled since the global financial crisis and is not expected to stabilize over the medium term under staff’s baseline. Cross-country evidence suggests that fiscal rules anchored in debt ceilings can be helpful in supporting fiscal adjustments aimed at reducing public debt and bolstering policy credibility. Design features such as institutional coverage, statutory base, correction mechanisms, and flexibility provisions can make the rules more credible and durable, and formal enforcement mechanism and independent institutions can strengthen their compliance. Strengthening South Africa’s fiscal framework by introducing a debt anchor and a credible operational fiscal rule in line with international best practice could help support the authorities’ fiscal objectives and safeguard debt sustainability. RECOMMENDED CITATION: Khalid, Asma and Nguyen, Anh D. M. (2025). South Africa’s Fiscal Framework: Challenges and Options for Reform. IMF Selected Issues Paper, African Department, SIP/2025/024, Washington D.C.: International Monetary Fund. JEL Classification Numbers: E61, E62, H1, H6 Keywords: Fiscal policy, Public Debt Sustainability, Fiscal Credibility, Fiscal Councils, Fiscal Anchors, Fiscal rules Author’s E-Mail Address: AKhalid3@imf.org , ANguyen3@imf.org SELECTED ISSUES PAPERS South Africa's Fiscal Framework: Challenges and Options for Reform South Africa Prepared by Asma Khalid and Anh Dinh Minh Nguyen1 1 The authors would like to thank Delia Velculescu for her support and guidance with the paper. A. Introduction 1. South Africa’s debt dynamics have weakened significantly over the last decade. The existing fiscal framework, comprised of a non-interest expenditure ceiling, and aiming to support the government’s stated budget objectives, has not been able to rein in the rise in public debt, primarily due to consistent revenue underperformance (also given subdued growth and volatile commodity prices), unbudgeted transfers to SOEs, and ris