IMF-马达加斯加水稻生产：自给自足的挑战（英）

Rice Production in Madagascar Challenges to Self-Sufficiency Vaishali Ashtakala, Joanne Tan (AFR), Timila Dhakhwa (MCM), and Yipei Zhang (SPR) SIP/2025/028IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodic consultations with member countries. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed on February 11, 2025. This paper is also published separately as IMF Country Report No 25/61. 2025 APR © 2025 International Monetary Fund SIP/2025/028 IMF Selected Issues Paper African Department Rice Production in Madagascar – Challenges to Self-Sufficiency Republic of Madagascar Prepared by Vaishali Ashtakala, Joanne Tan (AFR), Timila Dhakhwa (MCM), and Yipei Zhang (SPR) Authorized for distribution by Frederic Lambert April 2025 IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodic consultations with member countries. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed on February 11, 2025. This paper is also published separately as IMF Country Report No 25/61. ABSTRACT: The Malagasy government aims for self-sufficiency in rice production by 2027, targeting 6 million tons in 2024 and 11 million tons by 2030. Despite recent production increases, challenges such as competition from cheaper imports, low productivity, and climate change persist. This paper analyzes the impact of import competition on local markets, utilizing historical data on tariffs and VAT. It assesses potential rice output under various scenarios and discusses strategies for enhancing productivity sustainably. Findings indicate significant room for improvement in rice yields, highlighting the need for targeted supply-side policies to bolster local production without adversely affecting prices. RECOMMENDED CITATION: Ashtakala, V., Dhakhwa, T., Tan, J., and Zhang, Y. (2025). Rice Production in Madagascar - Challenges to Self-Sufficiency. IMF Selected Issues Paper, African Department, SIP/2025/028. Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund. JEL Classification Numbers: Q11, Q17, Q18 Keywords: Rice production, hybrid seeds, agriculture productivity, food security Author’s E-Mail Address: VAshtakala@imf.org, TDhakhwa@imf.org, YZhang6@imf.org SELECTED ISSUES PAPERS Rice Production in Madagascar Challenges to Self-Sufficiency Republic of Madagascar Prepared by Vaishali Ashtakala, Joanne Tan (AFR), Timila Dhakhwa (MCM), and Yipei Zhang (SPR) REPUBLIC OF MADAGASCAR INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 2 REPUBLIC OF MADAGASCAR SELECTED ISSUES Approved By The African Department Prepared By Vaishali Ashtakala, Joanne Tan (AFR), Timila Dhakhwa (MCM), and Yipei Zhang (SPR) RICE PRODUCTION IN MADAGASCAR—CHALLENGES TO SELF-SUFFICIENCY ___ 4A. Rice Production in Madagascar: Background and Recent Developments ___________ 4B. Levelling the Playing Field - Measuring Price Elasticities of Rice Demand and Supplyin Madagascar __________________________________________________________________