ACCA全球经济展望（英）

2025 GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK – A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN WORLDCopyright © January 2025 by the Association of Chartered Certified Accountants (ACCA).All rights reserved. Used with permission of ACCA. Contact insights@accaglobal.com for permission to reproduce, store or transmit, or to make other similar uses of this document.About ACCA We are ACCA (the Association of Chartered Certified Accountants), a globally recognised professional accountancy body providing qualifications and advancing standards in accountancy worldwide. Founded in 1904 to widen access to the accountancy profession, we’ve long championed inclusion and today proudly support a diverse community of over 252,500 members and 526,000 future members in 180 countries. Our forward-looking qualifications, continuous learning and insights are respected and valued by employers in every sector. They equip individuals with the business and finance expertise and ethical judgment to create, protect, and report the sustainable value delivered by organisations and economies. Guided by our purpose and values, our vision is to develop the accountancy profession the world needs. Partnering with policymakers, standard setters, the donor community, educators and other accountancy bodies, we’re strengthening and building a profession that drives a sustainable future for all.Find out more at accaglobal.comIntroduction This is our second annual economic outlook publication. We hope it will help you and your stakeholders navigate the many challenges, risks and opportunities in the global economy in the year ahead.In Section 1, we discuss the prospects for the global economy and key countries in 2025, as well as some of the major risks. In Section 2, we interview distinguished economist Charles Goodhart about his views on the outlook for the global economy. In Section 3, we highlight and discuss the key events to watch in 2025. In Section 4, we highlight three key trends we will be following closely in the coming year: i) developments with artificial intelligence (AI); ii) rising geoeconomic fragmentation; and iii) further retreating by governments from policies intended to achieve the green transition. Finally, in Section 5, we publish summaries of interviews with seven chief financial officers (CFOs) from across the world. They provided their bottom-up perspectives from the corporate level on the prospects for the world and their regions and countries in 2025.3The global economy should continue to grow at a reasonable, but not particularly exciting pace in 2025. But it is a world marked by significant uncertainty. Executive summaryThe risks are predominantly on the downside, particularly if changes in US trade policy result in large, sustained rises in tariffs that are much less targeted than during President Trump’s first term, and lead to retaliation by trading partners. Other downside risks come from the challenging geopolitical backdrop, heightened political uncertainty and rising government bond yields.