BIS-2024年年度经济报告(英）

Annual EconomicReportJune 2024BISAnnual EconomicJune 2022Report© Bank for International Settlements 2024. All rights reserved. Limited extracts may be reproduced or translated provided the source is stated. www.bis.orgemail@bis.orgFollow usAnnual EconomicReportJune 2024BISThis publication is available on the BIS website (https://www.bis.org/publ/arpdf/ar2024e.htm).© Bank for International Settlements 2024. All rights reserved. Brief excerpts may be reproduced or translated provided the source is stated.ISSN 2616-9428 (print) ISSN 2616-9436 (online)ISBN 978-92-9259-772-6 (print) ISBN 978-92-9259-771-9 (online)BIS Annual Economic Report 2024ContentsSo far, so good… . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ixIntroduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ixThe year under review . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ixPressure points and risks ahead . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xPolicy challenges . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xiiThe AI wave . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xviI. Laying a robust macro-financial foundation for the future . . . 1The year in retrospect . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2On course for a smooth landing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2Sustained disinflation opened the door to a monetary policy pivot . . . . . . . . . . . . 4Box A: China as a disinflationary force . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6The financial system positioned for a smooth landing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8Box B: The role of monetary policy in the recent inflation episode . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11Pressure points . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13Inflation pressure points . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13Macro-financial pressure points . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14Box C: Commercial real estate risks in the spotlight . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17Box D: The challenge of private credit . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20Fiscal pressure points . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .