BIS-人工智能与大数据持有：央行的机遇

BIS Working Papers No 1222 Artificial intelligence and big holdings data: opportunities for central banks by Xavier Gabaix, Ralph S J Koijen, Robert Richmond and Motohiro Yogo Monetary and Economic Department October 2024 JEL classification: C5, G11, G12. Keywords: Asset prices, central bank policies, artificial intelligence, embeddings. BIS Working Papers are written by members of the Monetary and Economic Department of the Bank for International Settlements, and from time to time by other economists, and are published by the Bank. The papers are on subjects of topical interest and are technical in character. The views expressed in them are those of their authors and not necessarily the views of the BIS. This publication is available on the BIS website (www.bis.org). © Bank for International Settlements 2024. All rights reserved. Brief excerpts may be reproduced or translated provided the source is stated. ISSN 1020-0959 (print) ISSN 1682-7678 (online) i Foreword The 23rd BIS Annual Conference took place in Basel, Switzerland, on 28 June 2024. The event brought together a distinguished group of central bank Governors, leading academics and former public officials to exchange views on the theme “Navigating uncharted waters: opportunities and risks for central banks”. The papers presented at the conference are released as BIS Working Papers, nos 1222, 1223, 1224 and 1225. BIS Paper no 150 contains remarks from the closing panel on “Revisiting the last decade of monetary policy”, by Michele Bullock (Reserve Bank of Australia), Pablo Hernández de Cos (Bank of Spain), Thomas Jordan (Swiss National Bank) and Sethaput Suthiwartnarueput (Bank of Thailand). iii Contents Foreword ....................................................................................................................................................... i Artificial intelligence and big holdings data: Opportunities for central banks By Ralph S J Koijen .................................................................................................................................. 1 Previous volumes ................................................................................................................................... 17 Artificial intelligence and big holdings data: Opportunitiesfor central banksXavier GabaixRalph S.J. KoijenRobert J. RichmondMotohiro Yogo∗September 8, 2024AbstractAsset demand systems specify the demand of investors for financial assets and the supply ofsecurities by firms. We discuss how realistic models of the asset demand system are essential toassess ex post, and predict ex ante, how central bank policy interventions impact asset prices,the distribution of wealth across households and institutions, and financial stability. Due to theimproved availability of big holdings data and advances in modeling techniques, estimating as-set demand systems is now a practical reality. We show how demand systems