欧洲央行-主权债务的宏观经济学(英)
www.ecb.europa.eu © Macroeconomics of sovereign debtBank of Greece Conference on “Public Debt: Past Lessons, Future Challenges”Philip R. LaneMember of the Executive Board•7 November 20241Rubricwww.ecb.europa.eu © Global fiscal patterns2Source: International Monetary Fund (2024), World Economic Outlook Database, 2024..General government net lending/borrowing (percentage of GDP)Source: International Monetary Fund (2024), World Economic Outlook Database, October.General government gross debt(percentage of GDP)Rubricwww.ecb.europa.eu © ECB Monetary Policy Statement, October 20243❑ “Fiscal and structural policies should be aimed at making the economy moreproductive, competitive and resilient. That would help to raise potential growthand reduce price pressures in the medium term. To this end, it is crucial toswiftly follow up, with concrete and ambitious structural policies, on MarioDraghi's proposals for enhancing European competitiveness and EnricoLetta’s proposals for empowering the Single Market. Implementing the EU’srevised economic governance framework fully, transparently and without delaywill help governments bring down budget deficits and debt ratios on asustained basis. Governments should now make a strong start in this directionin their medium-term plans for fiscal and structural policies.”Rubricwww.ecb.europa.eu © Stable public finances: smooth transmission of monetary policy4❑ Sovereign spread changes have a significant impact on domestic market funding and lending conditions.❑ In times of heightened sovereign market stress, lending spreads increasesubstantially, and loan dynamics weaken strongly.❑ The impact on lending conditions is stronger for countries with multiple imbalances.❑ Monetary Union: single monetary policy; stabilisation role of national fiscal policies and national macroprudential policies (Martin, P. and Philippon, T. (2017), “Inspecting the Mechanism: Leverage and the Great Recession in the Eurozone”, American Economic Review).Rubricwww.ecb.europa.eu © Risk management: scale back excessively high public debt ratios5❑ Lower vulnerability to financial, macroeconomic and external shocks❑ Increased capacity to respond to major shocks (pandemic example)❑ Gradual but frontloaded adjustment (Auclert A., T. Philippon and X. Ragot :"Putting French public finances on a sustainable footing", French Council of Economic Analysis, September 2024)❑ Growth-maximising fiscal packages (low-multiplier tax options; prioritise high-multiplier spending options)❑ Pro-growth structural reforms (even if limit to [r-g] mechanism)❑ Green, digital, defence ❑ Ageing❑ Role of national fiscal councils, national productivity councilsRubricwww.ecb.europa.eu © Pass-through of a sovereign spread shock6Pass-through to bond spreads(horizontal axis: months; vertical axis: pass-through, percentage)Sources: ECB and ECB calculations.Notes: The chart shows model estimates of the pass-through of a five-year sovereignspread shock using country panel local pro
欧洲央行-主权债务的宏观经济学(英),点击即可下载。报告格式为PDF,大小1.26M,页数20页,欢迎下载。
