国际货币基金组织发布《世界经济展望报告》英

WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK2024OCTINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUNDPolicy Pivot, Rising ThreatsWORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK2024OCTPolicy Pivot, Rising ThreatsINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND©2024 International Monetary Fund Cover and Design: IMF CSF Creative Solutions DivisionComposition: Absolute Service, Inc. Cataloging-in-Publication DataIMF LibraryNames: International Monetary Fund.Title: World economic outlook (International Monetary Fund)Other titles: WEO | Occasional paper (International Monetary Fund) | World economic and financial surveys.Description: Washington, DC : International Monetary Fund, 1980- | Semiannual | Some issues also have thematic titles. | Began with issue for May 1980. | 1981-1984: Occasional paper / International Monetary Fund, 0251-6365 | 1986-: World economic and financial surveys, 0256-6877.Identifiers: ISSN 0256-6877 (print) | ISSN 1564-5215 (online)Subjects: LCSH: Economic development—Periodicals. | International economic relations—Periodicals. | Debts, External—Periodicals. | Balance of payments—Periodicals. | International finance—Periodicals. | Economic forecasting—Periodicals.Classification: LCC HC10.W79HC10.80 ISBN 979-8-40028-115-0 (English Paper) 979-8-40028-317-8 (English ePub) 979-8-40028-313-0 (English Web PDF)Disclaimer: The World Economic Outlook (WEO) is a survey by the IMF staff pub-lished twice a year, in the spring and fall. The WEO is prepared by the IMF staff and has benefited from comments and suggestions by Executive Directors following their discussion of the report on October 8, 2024. The views expressed in this publication are those of the IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF’s Executive Directors or their national authorities.Recommended citation: International Monetary Fund. 2024. World Economic Outlook: Policy Pivot, Rising Threats. Washington, DC. October.Publication orders may be placed online, by fax, or through the mail:International Monetary Fund, Publication ServicesP.O. Box 92780, Washington, DC 20090, USATel.: (202) 623-7430 Fax: (202) 623-7201E-mail: publications@IMF.orgbookstore.IMF.orgelibrary.IMF.orgInternational Monetary Fund | October 2024iiiAssumptions and Conventions viiFurther Information ixData xPreface xiForeword xiiExecutive Summary xivChapter 1. Global Prospects and Policies 1Uncertainty Seeping through as Policies Shift 1The Outlook: Stable yet Underwhelming—Brace for Uncertain Times 6Risks to the Outlook: Tilted to the Downside 15Policy Priorities: From Restoring Price Stability to Rebuilding Buffers 18Box 1.1. The Global Automotive Industry and the Shift to Electric Vehicles 22Box 1.2. Risk Assessment Surrounding the World Economic Outlook’s Baseline Projections 24Commodity Special Feature: Market Developments and the Inflationary Effects of Metal Supply Shocks 28References 39Chapter 2. The Great Tightening: Insights from the Recent Inflation Episode 41Introduction 41What Happened? Dissecting Inflation Dynamics 43The Monetary Policy Reaction 48Lessons for Mo