投行全球战略投资报告！人工智能：买还是不买，这是个问题-Goldman Sachs

Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Peter Oppenheimer +44(20)7552-5782 peter.oppenheimer@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Sharon Bell +44(20)7552-1341 sharon.bell@gs.com Goldman Sachs International PORTFOLIO STRATEGY SEPTEMBER 5, 2024 | 5:00AM BSTGLOBAL STRATEGY PAPER NO. 70AI: To buy, or not to buy, that is the questionGuillaume Jaisson +44(20)7552-3000 guillaume.jaisson@gs.com Goldman Sachs International The technology sector has generated 32% of the Global equity return and•40% of the US equity market return since 2010. This has reflectedstronger fundamentals rather than irrational exuberance. The tech sectorglobally has seen EPS rise c.400% while all other sectors together haveachieved c.25% from the peak pre-GFC.The introduction of transformative technologies typically attracts•growing investor interest as well as significant capital and newcompetition. As enthusiasm builds and stock prices increase, the sum ofindividual company valuations can overstate the total potential aggregatereturns; often a bubble develops and bursts.Historically, investors over-focus on the originators, understate the•impact of competition and overstate the returns on capital invested bythe early innovators. At the same time, investors tend to underestimatethe growth of new entrants to the industry that can piggyback off thecapex of others, enabling them to generate new products and services.Valuations often also understate the opportunities that can accrue in thenon-technology industries that can leverage the technology to generatehigher returns in existing, as well as in new, product categories.In our view, the technology sector is not in a bubble and is likely to•continue to dominate returns. However, concentration risks are high andinvestors should look to diversify exposure to improve risk-adjustedreturns while also gaining access to potential winners in smallertechnology companies and other parts of the market, including in the oldeconomy, which will enjoy the growth of more infrastructure spend.Lilia Peytavin +33(1)4212-1716 lilia.peytavin@gs.com Goldman Sachs Bank Europe SE - Paris Branch Note: The following is a redacted version of the original report published September 5, 2024 [34 pgs]. Tech’s Rational Exuberance Technology has been the most important driver of returns for the equity markets globally since the end of the Global Financial Crisis. Its performance has far outstripped other major sectors, and with good justification. Earnings per share have surged while all industries together, outside of tech, have largely stagnated (Exhibit 1). Increasingly, these powerful returns have been accounted for by a small group of dominant companies, mainly in the US. These, too, have not reflected ‘irrational exuberance’: their earnings growth has dwarfed that of the broa