投行报告-美联储是否落后于曲线？（英）

IS THE FED BEHIND THE CURVE? ISSUE 131 | September 3, 2024 | 6:40 PM EDT’ ’ ’ ’ ’ ’ V’ ’ ’ ’ ’’ ’ ’ ’’’’’Global Macro ResearchInvestors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html.The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.Just as US inflation concerns moved into the rearview, the labor market started sending worrying signals, with the July jobs report triggering the Sahm rule, raising the question of whether the Fed is behind the curve in cutting rates and the risk of recession. Former regional Fed Presidents Bill Dudley and Rob Kaplan, Sahm rule creator Claudia Sahm, and GS GIR’s David Mericle have varying levels of concern about the labor market, with Dudley most worried about the risk of a negative feedback loop between job losses and reduced spending that would lead to recession, Sahm somewhat concerned, and Kaplan and Mericle less worried. They also generally disagree on whether the Fed has waited too long to cut, with Mericle and Kaplan arguing that the Fed is not meaningfully behind the curve, Sahm more concerned that the Fed has yet to act, and Dudley worried that the Fed may already be too late to avert recession. GS strategists argue that markets are vulnerable to sharp corrections should recession occur, but that risky assets would have room to run if it doesn’t. ““ INTERVIEWS WITH: Bill Dudley, Former President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York Rob Kaplan, Former President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Vice Chairman at Goldman Sachs Claudia Sahm, Chief Economist at New Century Advisors, Former Section Chief at the Federal Reserve Board of Governors David Mericle, Chief US Economist at Goldman Sachs US EQUITIES: FURTHER ROOM TO RISE Ben Snider, GS US Portfolio Strategy Research CONSUMER DEBT: HEALTHY ON NET Lotfi Karoui and Vinay Viswanathan, GS Credit Strategy Research A ROUNDUP OF THE US CONSUMER GS Equity Research MARKETS: NOT PRICING RECESSION Vickie Chang, GS Markets Research EXCHANGE RATES: A RECESSION HEDGE Teresa Alves, GS Markets Research WHAT’S INSIDEofAllison Nathan | allison.nathan@gs.com ...AND MORETOP MINDJenny Grimberg | jenny.grimberg@gs.com We are clearly not seeing a layoff spiral, the fast-moving vicious circle of job and income loss leading to reduced spending and further layoffs that would be hard for policymakers to counteract. - David MericleJust as the Fed was behind the curve in raising interest rates in this cycle, the Fed is now behind the curve in lowering rates to move closer to a neutral policy stance. - Bill DudleyEven if the Sahm rule is currently overstating the weakening in labor demand, it is still telling us something useful about the health of the US labor market. - Claudia SahmIf I were still in my seat at the Fed, I would determine from a risk management perspective that it’s time to begin cutting rates. - Rob Kapl