彼得森经济研究所-特朗普第二任总统任期的国际经济影响（英）

1750 Massachusetts Avenue, NW | Washington, DC 20036-1903 USA | +1.202.328.9000 | www.piie.comWORKING PAPERWarwick J. McKibbin, nonresident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, is Distinguished Professor of Economics and Public Policy and director of the Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis in the Crawford School of Public Policy at the Australian National University. Megan Hogan was a research fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics until August 2024. She joined the Institute as a research analyst in August 2021 and was the Eranda Rothschild Foundation Junior Fellow during 2022–23. Marcus Noland, executive vice president and director of studies at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, has been associated with the Institute since 1985. From 2009 through 2012, he served as the Institute’s deputy director. He is also a senior fellow at the East-West Center.24-20 The International Economic Implications of a Second Trump PresidencyWarwick McKibbin, Megan Hogan, and Marcus NolandSeptember 2024ABSTRACTThe paper explores policies promoted by former president and now candidate Donald Trump that would potentially affect the global economy. We focus on immigration policy, trade, and erosion of the Federal Reserve Board’s political independence. Each policy has differing macroeconomic and sectoral impacts on the United States and other countries. We find, however, that all the policies examined cause a decline in US production and employment, especially in trade-exposed sectors such as manufacturing and agriculture, as well as higher US inflation. The trade policies do little to improve the US trade balance; however, the erosion of Fed independence does so by causing capital outflows, a significant depreciation of the dollar, and higher unemployment toward the end of 2028, which worsen American living standards. Scenarios combining individual policies show that the changes cause a large inflationary impulse and a significant loss of employment (particularly in manufacturing and agriculture) in the US economy. The negative impact of a contraction in global trade is significant for countries that trade with the United States the most. The adverse effect is offset for some economies by the positive effects of an inflow of foreign capital that would otherwise have gone into the US economy. An online dashboard contains a full set of macroeconomic and sectoral results for all countries.JEL codes: F1, F13, F17, F22, F37, E58 Keywords: trade policy, migration, deportations, central bank independence, China, Trump Authors’ Note: We thank Maury Obstfeld, Adam Posen, Nell Henderson, Ayhan Kose, Andy Stoeckel, Egor Gornostay, David Wilcox, and participants at a PIIE seminar for helpful feedback and Roshen Fernando, Geoffrey Shuetrim, and Jing Yan for excellent technical support.The Peterson Institute for International Economics has no partisan goal in publishing this research. Our conc