韩国央行-韩国经济展望（2024年8月）（英）

This report is the English version of the “Korea Economic Outlook” published on August 29, 2024. Please contact the Research Department at the email address below if you have any questions regarding the contents or would like to request permission in advance for reproducing or copying the contents of this report for commercial purposes. Please credit the source when quoting, reproducing, or copying the contents of this report for non-commercial purposes. Research Department, Business Cycle Team, Bank of Korea econtrend@bok.or.kr Contents Executive Summary Ⅰ. Macroeconomic Conditions and Outlook 1. Domestic and International Economic Conditions Global Economy Korea’s Economy Main Premises of the Baseline Outlook 2. Macroeconomic Outlook for Korea Economic Growth Current Account Prices Employment 3. Risk Assessment Key Risks to the Outlook Distribution of Growth Projections by Major Institutions Scenario Analysis 1 1 8 13 14 14 20 21 24 26 26 26 27 i Executive Summary  Korea’s economy will likely continue its favorable pace of growth in the low-to-mid 2% range, as exports remain strong and domestic demand resumes its recovery trend, albeit somewhat lower than previously forecasted.  CPI inflation is expected to slow to the low 2 percent range in the second half of the year thanks to the continued downward stabilization in core inflation and the base effect from the sharp increase in oil and agricultural prices last year. 2023 2024e)1) 2025e)1) GDP growth rate (%) 1.4 2.4 (-0.1) 2.1 (-) Headline inflation (%) 3.6 2.5 (-0.1) 2.1 (-) (Core inflation) 3.4 2.2 (-) 2.0 (-) Current account (USD 100 million) 355 730 (+130) 620 (+10) Change in number of employed persons (10,000 persons) 33 20 (-6) 16 (-2) Note: 1) ( ) indicates change from the May 2024 projection. Recent Changes in Key Drivers  Since the May forecast, monetary easing cycle has been broadening in major economies, and the global IT cycle continues to improve. However, financial market volatility has increased, and geopolitical risks have also heightened. Domestic demand has resumed its recovery trend but the pace of recovery has been slow. ▪ The global economy, overall, is expected to continue its moderate growth as projected previously, but adjustments of growth trajectories for individual countries from the forecast in May, despite offsetting each