麦肯锡-是时候下注了：欧洲的人工智能机会（英）

October 2024QuantumBlack, AI by McKinseyTime to place our bets: Europe’s AI opportunityBoosting Europe’s competitiveness across the AI value chain.by Alexander Sukharevsky, Eric Hazan, Sven Smit, Marc-Antoine de la Chevasnerie, Marc de Jong, Solveigh Hieronimus, Jan Mischke, and Guillaume DagorretAt a glance — A three-lens approach–on adoption, creation, and energy–is required to assess Europe’s competitiveness in the emerging generative AI (gen AI) economy. While much of the current discourse centers around large language models (LLMs), European policy makers and business leaders must look beyond LLMs. Adopting a holistic approach to capitalize fully on gen AI’s potential could boost European labor productivity by up to 3 percent annually through 2030. — On adoption, European organizations lag behind their US counterparts by 45 to 70 percent. Yet this is where most of gen AI’s economic potential lies. With the technology still in its early stages and much of its productivity gains yet to be unlocked, the window of opportunity for Europe remains wide open. — On creation, Europe leads in only one of the eight segments of a simplified gen AI value chain: AI semiconductor equipment. Europe is a challenger in three other segments: foundation models, AI applications, and AI services. But it has below 5 percent market share in the remaining four: raw materials, AI semiconductor design, AI semiconductor manufacturing, and cloud infrastructure and supercomputers. — On energy, gen AI is expected to accelerate data center power demand, potentially accounting for more than 5 percent of Europe’s total electricity consumption by 2030. Without competitive electricity prices, it becomes less likely that European data centers will host gen AI applications and services.1 In this article, unless specified otherwise, “generative AI” (gen AI) encompasses all AI technologies, including the latest advancements in gen AI.2 By January 2023, the company had already gained 100 million users and was valued at $29 billion ($80 billion today). This triggered massive investments to fund gen AI companies ($25 billion in worldwide private investments in 2023) and spurred the release of multiple breakthrough innovations and competing models (for example, Google’s Gemini and Meta’s Llama). Artificial Intelligence Index report 2024, Stanford University, 2024; DigitalRank, Similarweb, accessed September 2024; Julia Boorstin, “Why OpenAI is the first company to be No. 1 on the CNBC Disruptor 50 list two years in a row,” CNBC, May 14, 2024.3 In this article, “Europe” refers to the 27 member states of the European Union plus Norway, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom.4 Per academic research, innovators historically capture less than 5 to 10 percent of broader economic returns generated by their inventions. Adopters of the technology and society at large generate the remaining returns. For more, see William D. Nordhaus, Schumpeterian profits in the American economy: Theory and mea